The miners don't lie. Bearish Head and Shoulders formation. That is top if I ever seen one. 26 is the minimum lower target. 20 is the target I would like to see. At 12- 16 I will take out a loan to invest in GDX.
The economy is not in good shape as demonstrated by GDX acting weird and very bearish. It is well known GDX is a "proxy of liquidity". We see a very illiquid market upon us as, demonstrated by WSBets and GME. An illiquid market that starts to break down will summon another event like March. If we see the VIX get much higher there will be a crazy deleveraging and fleet to cash. Most Algos take in an input of the VIX. So as, the Vix reaches higher and higher price levels selling of risk assets occurs. The VIX looks like it is cooling off at a big move this week but, its just gaining more "power" or "potential energy". As, GDX moves down Gold and Silver will follow.
**I like to analysis the fundamentals, investing > trading ... look at the amount of wealthy investors vs. traders. excluding quant traders. My strategy is Buy Low Sell High. I think the market can bubble up for 1-3 months then have a blow off top with the amount of retail buying. As you can see, I am looking at a 10 year chart. I don't know the exact timing but, its coming that's for sure and all fundamental signs are pointing to it. I am not trying to instill fear just, acknowledging its existence.
Full Disclosure: I have been short GDX since October. Long Bonds, Long VIX, Still holding stocks waiting for a last leg up, I will exit stocks near end of February.
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If GDX gets above 41, I will apologize to all Gold Bugs I have offended. I am long GDX but, only below 20
There's really just no fundamental reason for GDX to go to 20 with metal prices where they're at right now and real interest rates in the gutter unless this GME stuff causes a significant de-leveraging, which at this point still seems to be more of a tail-risk than a strong possibility, so agree to disagree with your analysis. However, much respect for putting on the GDX short from October.
arama-nuggetrouble
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@Aurelian_Nostradamus ,Thank you for your respectful comment. I have received a couple very hateful comments in my DMs. I think GDX falls because of the global liquidity crisis.
tittywagon
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It looks like GDX is starting to dip as you predicted. I would be interested if you have any comments on how BTC plays a possible role in GDX and gold prices. Could we be seeing bearish gold because BTC is replacing it to a certain extent?
DCardinal
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20? I would be happy with just 25 but your recommended buy in area would indeed be one great buy.