GDX has overbought written all over it. Top of channel, outside bollinger bands (yellow circles), run up percentage average reached, trend lines in sight, reversal percentage up, Gold has been up in what would otherwise be a down economic factor related (deflation, etc) zone. And by association NUGT and GLD also. Exited my NUGT position yesterday. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered here IMO. IF ECB surprises tomorrow with more QE than expected, Euro and GOLD takes a hit, dollar soars. Was on the fence, but needed to make a decision, tight or wrong, playing it safe. Odds favor that, instead of a disappoint, don't fight the FED or ECB too? SNB actions may have foretold the impact of their decision, a back room leak? Not sold that ECB can do this, but can't factor it out, even too much risk for me, risk off for today. Without all that, nice SNB actions profit (thanks swiss) chart says take profits, don't be greedy or foolish.
Comments
claydoctor
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One more thought, we should have gone lower, if not for the SNB thing (the 2nd gold vertical line) , so events can extend this run, but only major, surprise, historic events.
claydoctor
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FYI I did not sell my VXX positions, even though they are down last few days, might add to it, watching very carefully, hedging ECB actions, insurance. Even if the short term Euro goes down with big QE, and VXX takes a little hit, markets bounce, I think it is short lived, with oil maybe going lower, and Reality sets in after Greece elections and US FOMC next week. Don't mind taking a loss with what is at stake here, if that's is the case, this next week is so huge for all of us, the world I would say, and implications for the next 6 months at least. VXX might actually go up with markets up, so much VOL.