Based on the strong rally at the start of 2016, the long-term downtrend is over and a long-term uptrend is likely underway. The decline for the last 1.5 years has been messy, but so far it is just a correction against the prior rally. The long-term outlook still favors a rise above the 2016 high...but in the short-term expect some pain. With the price moving toward some major short-term lows, it is highly likely the will drop to clear all the weak hands and stop losses below those levels before rallying.