chartwatchers
Short

GDXJ - Selling into the breakout

AMEX:GDXJ   VANECK VECTORS JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF
1318 41 24
8 months ago
Gold             price was pulled up on low volume Friday after the NFP data.
A strong NFP data should have caused a steep decline in gold             but I think nobody was prepeared for that at Smartmoney.
So what can the banks do in this case? Bullion banks are starting to pull up gold             price in the low volume Friday afternoon session. In the gold             bull market - and miners bull market - traders get used to buy the dip so they think the rally will last forever. But not this late in the daily cycle and so much stressed above the 200 EMA on the daily chart . Miners are due for a correction and I think we have seen the top in GDXJ             and GDX             yesterday.
The artificial gold             rally on Friday gave the chance to miners to rally higher and banks could sell into this breakout.

I'M looking forward to see a GAP down open in the miners on Monday.
8 months ago
Comment: Second highest volume in DUST. Banks are positioning here in the last 3 days.
snapshot
verlin03
8 months ago
You are missing the big picture. Make a chart of RBOB versus oil for the year and tell me what you see. Make a chart of the S&P versus oil for the same period and tell me what you see.
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chartwatchers PRO verlin03
8 months ago
Did you buy the breakout on Friday ? :)
+2 Reply
chartwatchers PRO verlin03
8 months ago
S&P is my favorite. It's going to break to new highs next week. As I'm watching the big picture I think it will rally till 2400-2500$ till september.
+3 Reply
verlin03 verlin03
8 months ago
I analyze and trade energy. I am invested in gold and silver. After you nailed the previous non farms I tried your call to short around $1250 in hopes of finding a better buying opportunity. I got stopped out and went long around $1260. I'm long silver at $17.70. Study energy. The writing is on the wall.
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chartwatchers PRO verlin03
8 months ago
At 1280-1300 I will join the gold bull but not now. So don't stop out at the DCL when gold will be 1280 and silver 17.90 in the following 2 weeks.
+2 Reply
salarfeen chartwatchers
8 months ago
You are of a firm opinion that silver will tank to 17.90 in a fortnight?
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chartwatchers PRO salarfeen
8 months ago
Sooner or later it will print a DCL...
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verlin03 verlin03
8 months ago
I see $30-$40 oil in the fall. RBOB will pull CL down. Peak demand season for crude and products ends in 8 weeks. Crack spreads hit $13 in June. This is unheard of. Refinery utilization will likely drop below 87% ( 5 year average) this fall. Good luck.
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chartwatchers PRO verlin03
8 months ago
Even if oil is printing a larger intermediate correction its not going to be a steep decline. My line in the sand is the saudi beartrap at 38$. And maybe not even below 40. That is not too much. If you try to short it can whipsaw you out easily. And if you short the S&P you can easily loose all you make on gold. Your gold and silver long is smart just dont stop it at the DCL because sooner or later it will come.
+1 Reply
pbartashevich PRO chartwatchers
8 months ago
Not sure why Oil topic is here :). WTI established a downward channel and now at the bottom line of it. There is quite a lot of support here at $44.5 - 100EMA, support line 200EMA is close. I will wait till it bounce and hit top line, hopefully soon at around $48.5 - 49 and try to short it with small amount.
+1 Reply
traderzaius chartwatchers
8 months ago
Arpi, you pretty much nailed it with this comment
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verlin03 verlin03
8 months ago
You don't understand the fundamentals. I'm trying to show what is happening with charts so that you would understand. Make a chart of RBOB versus CL for the year and study it. CL can't stay elevated with RBOB down. Don't rule out the possibility of a repeat of last year. Consumption of RBOB has to pull us out. It's not happening.
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traderzaius verlin03
8 months ago
I don't see a big decline in oil, you can't look at fundamentals anymore. USD dropping = Bullish oil. ES rising = Bullish oil. Sentiment = neutral. It is consolidating, looking for a fast break out once we get the intermediate cycle low.
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traderzaius traderzaius
8 months ago
And look at CRB index, long consolidation pattern before making a break for 200
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verlin03 traderzaius
8 months ago
You can't use fundamentals? Look a refinery stocks. This last week look really healthy. What do you think they are going to do this fall with RBOB are sitting at 24.5 demand days in June? I'm going to just tell you. They are going to reduce utilization. What does that mean? Lower crude demand. It's not rocket science.
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verlin03 verlin03
8 months ago
To add... I've seen your eurusd versus xauusd analysis. I'd love to see your RBOB versus CL ;)
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chartwatchers PRO verlin03
8 months ago
:)
Gold is rallying with Blees 0 for the 6th week now.
The greenback cannot rally on a strong job data.
Oil rallied for 3 months despite the fundamentals
Fundamentals are not working anymore. Governments had printed too much money.
We are entering into a horrible inflation. Take my advise and hold your gold longs. If you short oil and S&P you will give back your
Gains you are making in the precious metals.
+1 Reply
verlin03 chartwatchers
8 months ago
Oil rallied because of strong RBOB demand. It shows in price. Inflation expectations are low. Expect inflation after deflation. I understand the scenario you invision. It's just not happening that way. Are you shocked to see oil trade with seasonality of demand? I'm not. Just so you are informed. High demand = summer Low demand = winter spring&fall = swing
Why buy gold with expected deflation? Central bank credibility

People are buying gold that have never bought before. Things are different. I see how you try to trade the cyclicity of your DCL. Understand that charts don't predict the future. Important dates for gold... Fed rate and Deutsche Bank earnings (July 27th) I see large short term put options being purchased :) Hard to trade random information but the trend is clear. There is historical precedence for gold not printing a DCL. Do you want to be short when you really want to be long?
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al.calgary verlin03
8 months ago
What do you think about silver? it will fall after Friday non sense rally? or will touch 21$ again? thx
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Nightstar
8 months ago
Arpi - Are you looking to go 'short' on Monday at the open or did you already 'short' on Friday..? Or are you sitting on the sidelines until we get a DCL?
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO Nightstar
8 months ago
I entered 1 minute before NFP when I saw they are cleaning the shorts. Closed them and entered again at 1355$ in the last big volume candle... I didn't know that they will pull it up to 1370$... If Im right and it was to hold up miners price we will fall on Monday. If not we will test 1400$ before DCL. But no question day 28 is not the time to have big position in gold. Also I wouldn't hold miners at this overbought levels this late in the daily cycle. But mygold short positions are very small now. Just want to be in the first row when we print the DCL. If I have position Im much better to call it...
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Nightstar chartwatchers
8 months ago
Agree.. I exited NUGT @162 on Wednesday and will wait patiently for a correction. I might put a bit of money into USLV as well once it drops into a DCL -- I think silver will continue to outperform.

Keep up the good work my friend :)
+1 Reply
pbartashevich PRO
8 months ago
You guys are so pessimistic. Watch Golds reaction when S&P make new high this week. One of the reasons to buy Gold is potential double top in US markets. Once it is invalidated S&P should fly right? It should be bearish for Gold.
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traderzaius pbartashevich
8 months ago
Gold and stock market will be going up together while the USD takes a dive into the 80's.
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pbartashevich PRO traderzaius
8 months ago
What makes you think that DXY will go down? Check weekly chart. It just broke up RSI downtrend line on it. MACD crossed. 50 EMA crossed up. Momentum is up. Only 50 SMA stands on it's way. I think USD still have some room to run. Plus Fed going to talk rate hike soon, I suspect, while Europe may ease to support banking sector. I actually will not be surprised if DXY try to test 100 again. It was forming bullish flag since March 2015.On the way to the upper boundary right now.
+1 Reply
pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
8 months ago
This week we have invalidated shooting star from last week. Odds are that DXY will go up.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
8 months ago
Zaius is true. Something is wrong with the USD. Should have rallied on this strong NFP report...
+1 Reply
pbartashevich PRO chartwatchers
8 months ago
It did not rallied because good jobs report did not affect much percentage for the rate hike. People still believe that Fed is in the corner because of Brexit and cannot rise rates. While Fed wants, obviously, to take back control over the market and keep playing hike-no hike game. That is why I believe Friday data day is so crucial. It will seed the doubt in traders, if it will be pro-rate hike. Regardless, where Gold will be on Thursday I will make short position. Maybe earlier - depends on price action.
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jackcrudeoil
8 months ago
Hi chart..oil during these days seems To be Crazy..what do you think will happen next week?? Thanks a lot
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nexuz
8 months ago
why do you short GDX instead of buying DUST? just wondering cause the R/R seems to be better on dust imho. if we get a dcl in gold at about the area of 1300 DUST could nearly double up - gdx target would be "only" about 25%.
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chartwatchers PRO nexuz
8 months ago
I just wanted to show what are my thoughts regarding the miner pop on Friday on a high volume and a gold rally on low volume.
EVerybody can decide to jump into a 3x etf lke DUST or just short GDX. DUst longs were not to profitable in the last half year....
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nexuz chartwatchers
8 months ago
true burned myself also with dust longs :) just wanted to know more about your gdx idea - if we get a reversal at about 1390/1400 area i think im going to get into dust with a small position. the ratio seems just to good to ignore
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caneman
8 months ago
I agree, too far extended past the 20day ema... i believe in regression to the mean.
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JesseL
8 months ago
Will Gold break Down or Up?
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JesseL JesseL
8 months ago
We should know in the morning.....
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marketpundit
8 months ago
There is a run on bank unfolding in Italy. ATM's are getting emptied. Something to keep an eye on as well. Might provide another boost for gold, silver and dxy.
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marketpundit marketpundit
8 months ago
bear in mind this has nothing to do with tech analysis but simply an observation.
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pbartashevich PRO
8 months ago
Looks like GDX intend to make first half of reversal: made new high and intend to close lower than Friday. I am 1/3 in DUST, just in case it "unexpectedly" shoot up tomorrow :).
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Notyour
8 months ago
Im quite impressed. GDX doesnt want to go down
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pbartashevich PRO
8 months ago
It drop on opening and was recovering on half of average volume. Consolidating - people are not sure. After breaking $30.68 on third attempt it backed off immediately and was weak until last 30 minutes.

Tomorrow we will have 3 FOMC members speaking 9:15 Tarullo, 9:35 Bullard, 17:30 Kashkari. Let's see what they have to say. I think now conditions are OK for Fed to start talking - looks like we have officially recovered from Brexit :).
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