I´m very very bullish in the precious metals sector. That doesn't mean that it has to rise every day, every week and so on. In fact, corrections are sharp in this sector, and all those who have been investing in it for long know it very well, even during the bulling phases, like the one we are in.
These are my views regarding the GDXJ fund (gold mining in general).
Now gold has rose (and is rising) an so did the mining. GDXJ rose the same % (so far) as did in the previous "top" phase B in late February, before the collapse. About 7-8% (***). It can continue rising...of course, that would mean that you are short term (weeks) bullish in the sector. That´s ok. The bullish case is clear (clearer in many points than the bearish scenario, like price action itself, which is the most important)
But there are other signs that are bearish for me, and I can avoid being bearish at this time. I'm expecting a bearish scenario from some days ago. First I was considering that B would be as A, (that means not rising such 7%) but I was wrong. I can still be wrong if gold goes on rising, and there is no special reason not to be the case.
But if some patterns repeat....as they did before, there could be a drop. I don't expect a drop like the March one (of course), but a drop to the 42-38 (support) levels would probably occur if gold has some summertime relief. And that is what i´m betting.
Good Luck.
(****) 46,42 / 43,23 =7,4 % And 50,37 * 1,074 = 54,10 $ (close to the 54,56 $ top)
These are my views regarding the GDXJ fund (gold mining in general).
Now gold has rose (and is rising) an so did the mining. GDXJ rose the same % (so far) as did in the previous "top" phase B in late February, before the collapse. About 7-8% (***). It can continue rising...of course, that would mean that you are short term (weeks) bullish in the sector. That´s ok. The bullish case is clear (clearer in many points than the bearish scenario, like price action itself, which is the most important)
But there are other signs that are bearish for me, and I can avoid being bearish at this time. I'm expecting a bearish scenario from some days ago. First I was considering that B would be as A, (that means not rising such 7%) but I was wrong. I can still be wrong if gold goes on rising, and there is no special reason not to be the case.
But if some patterns repeat....as they did before, there could be a drop. I don't expect a drop like the March one (of course), but a drop to the 42-38 (support) levels would probably occur if gold has some summertime relief. And that is what i´m betting.
Good Luck.
(****) 46,42 / 43,23 =7,4 % And 50,37 * 1,074 = 54,10 $ (close to the 54,56 $ top)
Trade active:
If that was the top (9th of July), I would expect a bottom 6 to 8 weeks from now. That means at the end of August, beginning of September. At that time we would have past the bottom, there could be more consolidation or not, depending on the drop in gold and how strong the Long Trend Forces are. It´s something nobody knows.
Unless disaster...the bull will resume. There are very strong market signal that support that fact, at least for me. That means I do not consider any "disaster".
From past performance, during the 2000s, bull market corrections of the uptrends in the Gold Market could last 6 to 8 weeks or even more, with 10%-15% (more or less) drop from the top. That means that it would not be strange if gold falls in the range 1.540 - 1.640 $
During these weeks there would be time to short and time to long. I do swing trading. Right now, I´m short. As I entered too early I need to recover my position, which I expect to do soon, if not totally, partially with a small loss.
Good Luck
Unless disaster...the bull will resume. There are very strong market signal that support that fact, at least for me. That means I do not consider any "disaster".
From past performance, during the 2000s, bull market corrections of the uptrends in the Gold Market could last 6 to 8 weeks or even more, with 10%-15% (more or less) drop from the top. That means that it would not be strange if gold falls in the range 1.540 - 1.640 $
During these weeks there would be time to short and time to long. I do swing trading. Right now, I´m short. As I entered too early I need to recover my position, which I expect to do soon, if not totally, partially with a small loss.
Good Luck
Order cancelled:
The way golds stocks are moving right now, i expect one more leg up next week. So i sold my short positions and enter longs.