I would like to share my thought about our current stage, as things seems to go wrong.
1) So far, the long term view has not been damaged. That means, I still see a new up leg. The base, that means the consolidation, has taken more that I thought. So It went out of the two parallel lines of the channel. So as it is said: the larger the base, the larger the move.
2) We are at a critical juncture. Historically, these lines have been good supports, even in the previous bull market (2000-...) So I'm confident that they will remain as supports.
3) Correction should have ended today. Although i don't have confirmation until tomorrow. I am not selling. I don't expect more falling. A new 4-5 days move up should start tomorrow and some gaps up (if not all) should be filled
4) During the previous consolidation, we also have a day under the line.
5) That's my point, and I don´t want nobody to suffer if I´m wrong, so please be care always. I've wrong in the pass and I will be wrong again, hope not this time.
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We have no t break the Support level. We are again at the same situation we where a month ago. Also the ratio is at the same level. It "MUST" hold. That means we should reverse today, that means no more fall from these level and begin to move up. Seems we have to wait for the election to any move (up). We need to overcome 2016 levels, which we didn't yet. But, things are critical again. We are at the same levels as the 11th August and 23 September. From that levels miners rose. This is the third time. I expect, wish it holds and rise to new highs after election. But caution is needed also.
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Gold breakout is ongoing!. Relax time being bull until we reach 63-66 $ levels.
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I expect a rise for a few more days. That means that we could "top" Monday or Tuesday. The move up is going to continue. So from now until we see some clear uptrend channel pattern, the most important is to STAY IN. If this is like I think it is, will long till year end or more. I will not short, but I will try to exit and enter again, trying to gain more positions of JNUG as the move advances. This is not easy, but is not risky. Confirmation will come once we overcome the 66 $ level. But we could see some rejection there before we go over it. That is what I expect next. Have a nice weekend.
@zstocks, Good night Zstocks, How are you?, I didn't move my positions.😊. I'll comment my thoughts tonorrow morning if you don't mind. It's late for me now. Thanks for your confidence.✋
zstocks
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@JAY_Cabuxo, Thanks Jay, have a goodnight. Looking forward to your comments.
From my point of view, nothing has changed. It is still ranging. Feel this will go on until the USA election date. But I´m still bullish. Any technical damage has happen to the sector.
Gold is very volatile, while miners are more easy to ride.
The next chart shows how I think we are. Very similar situation as June this year.
ibb.co/x2PMxSb
The next chart shows where miners are from a very long perspective. Even thought gold has reached recently all time highs, miners (in terms of gold) are depressed. Very depressed.
So depressed that they even not surpassed 2016 highs!!!
The same happens to GDXJ.
Comments are in Spanish, but can easily translate them to your own language.
So, as I said before, If we are in a secular bull market, this must be confirmed in every way. A drop now will again set more bearish pressure to miners, and invalidate the bullish case.
And I think this can't happen, because MANY other signals from the market says WE are IN a SECULAR BULL MARKET.
I´ll be busy these following days and may not be able to comment your comments.
Cheers.
zstocks
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@JAY_Cabuxo, Appreciate it!
zstocks
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Hi Jay, any updates here or comments on what to expect next week? Still long GDXJ and trying to be patient
JAY_c5velm
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@zstocks, Hello Zstocks. I m still long. But The situation is still on the edge. I have checked past performance again. Not only this year, but also indexes like HUi during The beginning of The 2000 - bull market.
So I still believe that we are at the final stages of this consolidación. I am holding my positions since August.
During this comming week there could be some more weakness the first half of The week. But we should not fall much from current situation.
The fact is that I'm not confortable, but still confidence. I had the same feeling back in June, prior yo the beginning of The leg up. At that time I didn't expect the bull that came afterwards. Now I think It will happen.
The corrective cycle of gold in June lasted 8 weeks, and this is lasting that at the moment.
The line of support is important and should not be passed.
zstocks
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@JAY_Cabuxo, Appreciate it Jay. Will keep watching that line of support. Can't help but notice similarities between 2016 + 2020 weekly GDXJ charts. Both years were election years and had big rallies from under 20 to 52+ - so far both have topped in August, and in 2016 GDXJ crashed in October before the election. I know we are at different points in the gold bull market so maybe that situation was very different than today. But can you take a look at the 2016 GDXJ rally and this year's and maybe comment on how they are different or what you think about this similarity?
JAY_c5velm
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@zstocks, Good morning Zstocks. Agree with your view. I also compared the current state with 2016. I think is more accurate than do it with other years like 2009 or so.
Comparing this situation with 2011 is a complete mistake.
In 2016 there were three impulsive phases. And I think we are at stage 2, waiting for the ignition to the final level. I will attache some images from 2016 and 2020 in png format.
I will share also later what i think is the most important chart: The ratio GDXJ:GOLD. For me this is the Key. Not ony gold stock stock (in general) or gold separate, but the ratio. How miners do relative to gold. And from that view, you, as an investor, should be patient and calm, because time in or your side, however you look at them.
I use leverage products and that is a different story because a sharp drop is difficult to recover. So I must be aware of that. If it fall 25% in must increase a 33 % to get to the same point, which means a 33% more. That's the problem with these products... simple math.