Another final leg and dramatic leg down to check the covid lows during September this year.
1) Shorting to 30 I consider a low risk trade, but this is me and my risk analysis. 2) Once in that level (28-30), GDXJ could bounce a bit . Most probably is that it wont be A MAJOR low, as I wish and would like. I have not considered the posibility of visiting the covid levels until now but I think they will (Miners). So if prices breaks previous lows (25,80$), it could go there easily.
Now i give high chances for that to happen. So as and investor, I would sell miners now and wait until September to buy them back again. And as a swing trend trader I short like hell and reduce my exposure as trend advances and gets close to target, because the risk of a change in trend (again to UP) at any moment gets higher.
No Changes Lighting and thunder before the storm. Storm that i fell will afect other commodities not just metals and precious metals.
SIn cambios. Bajista 100% Los movimientos de repunte de estos días son como los rayos y truenos que anteceden la tormenta, que me da que afectará a otras materias primas, no solo en los metales preciosos.
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My only concern from last week action is that MINERS still move a bit up before falling, and this move could extend till end of the monthor beginnig June. Depends on dollar and Gold.
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Idea keeps going. I think the final bottom will come later, may be October, could be November, but September is a bet early. Could happen, but as I see the whole thing: DXY, GOLD, and indexes (GDX, GDXJ), i am more confident in late October - November at the moment. I am begining to post my ideas in Spanish, and i think that anyone interested in the charts can only read them changing the language to spanish and see the bell with advice, even if I am in the following list, i think you wont get the advice. Thats how TV works. Dont know if the email works in that case, better.
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It did not fall as much as I expect, so far. I closed my short positions and open long (small one) till end of july. Dollar will probably bottom 98-99 and then we have to see what happens. End July Fed meeting could rise interest again.
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So the rest of the month is bullish and GDXJ could go again 38$ level.
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Or even 40$-41$ the most. I dont think it will pass this level.
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I have updated my view. Bearish game is over. Sector could enter in superbullish mode.
@JAY_c5velm A bigger, longer term, question: What are the chances that precious metals retest the Sep 2022 and 4Q 2018 lows, create a triple bottom and take off to the upside big time from there? How likely is a retest of the lows from 2016 and Mar 2020 again? Fundamentally, the money supply in 2016 was much less, and 2020 was an extreme liquidity event. Looking ahead to how much to allocate when Sep 2022 levels are retested.
JAY_c5velm
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@bjorn2z, Well I only focus in PRICE. I don´t care any other variable: volume, news, etc... Just price. Monthly, weekly and daily price. Moves have two parameters: variation and duration. At the moment I give very high chances that MONTHLY trend has finished, because of duaration and variation. If that is the case, GDXJ is about to begin another monthly bear leg. And is almost imposible (per my analysis) to change again from that bearish leg to a later bullish one without reaching september lows. In fact I think market would be there by July. If that doesn't happen, then i am wrong and the current monthly bullish has noot finished. So, to avoid September 22 lows, current monthly trend should remain bullish. May correct a bit and continue. But that goes againts history and data. So, in case that happens, it would be "new" for me. But of coure, that posibility exists, it is simple "new". And all i see confirms that monthly trend has ended also in GDX, HUI and XAU.
bjorn2z
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@JAY_c5velm, Thank you for the detailed answers! So we agree that GDXJ 28 chances are very high. Just wondering about the chances of GDXJ 20 later, IF it reaches 28 this summer.