$GE | Down But Not Out | Great Buy Coming Up

General Electric is fast approaching a major support level defined by my model and supported by historical levels. This will be a great long term buying opportunity.
Comment: GE coming into smaller time frame support zone. Model still suggests 8.62-6.13 as major support. Updates to come as this progresses.


Reaction off of Smaller Time Frame Support. Still no signal for reversal. Watching closely.
Comment: Original forecast still in force.

Major Support has been hit. My model has defined this zone as a High Probability Reversal Area. Buys should start coming in defined zone.
@bigdmail I guess the fundamentals were wrong.
GWaves - Just want to make certain that I understand your position. Are you suggesting that support is at 8.62 or at 6.13. That is a 40% difference there -- and presumes a near-term down side of at least 32%. As bad as things have been, I don't believe that fundamentals (forward p/e, book value, etc) will allow it to fall so low. Don't think even perma-bear, Tusa, could see it hitting that price. And with major market movers begin to gobble up shares last quarter, my bet is on this thing flattening out here.
GWaves bigdmail
@bigdmail, Great question. Its not to say that 8.62 or 6.13 specifically will hold as support. Rather, it is the range highlighted on the chart that I think will hold as support. These levels are high probability levels defined by my own proprietary model based solely off of technicals. If I were to invest in this particular stock I would begin buying as price inches closer to the support zone. As of now, I don't see any reasoning for GE to move up from current levels.

If I see a signal to buy on a smaller time frame I will be sure to update this post. But as of now, the analysis stands.
bigdmail GWaves
@GWaves, Please don't interpret any of my response as being hyper-critical. Certainly, from a technical side, I agree with your view. Even with the worst fundamentals, there appears to be a technical backstop to support a buy. On that, you and I are totally on the same page. I would only challenge you to balance this perspective against fundamentals. Even the most pessimistic analysts have suggested a break-up value greater than $11/share. Therefore; there is likely a higher and equally strong floor. I value the technical perspective. But; without a change in those fundamentals, this just isn't going to get that low -- regardless of what any chart pattern might indicate.
GWaves bigdmail
@bigdmail, Not at all, I invite criticism on all of my posts. The proprietary model I'm using is still in its infancy so any challenges thrown its way is interesting for me.

I personally don't think fundamental analysis has much strength in terms of predicting price action. Particularly since I have studied so many different forms of technical analysis. I find that fundamentals act as a catalyst to what the technicals have already drawn out. For instance, in this chart, the technicals tell me that there is a high probability for price to drop into the Major Support zone. What the catalyst will be for that move remains unclear.

With that said I can make an argument that on a smaller time frame the range of 11.56-10.17 can also act as support. However, I would not give it the same strength of support as the zone highlighted in the original chart.

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