elp

DAX 5th Wave Extension?

FX:GER30   DAX index of German listed shares
2 years ago
To be honest, I am not much of an elliott wave guy and have a basic understanding of it. However, it looks like the DAX             is making a 5th wave extension of a 5th wave extension. see link here for 5th wave extensions. figure 1-10 http://www.elliottwave.com/tutorial/Lesson2/2-2.htm

If I am correct, the DAX             might not have much room to the upside. If the Dax             makes a w4 then a w5 up to finish the 5th wave extension to complete W3. It could present a good rr short with a tight stop with a target of 10764- 10600 Note, would wait for daily confirmation to short with signs of clear rejection, because the Dax             is quite strong.
5 months ago
Comment: Break feb lows and there is some air below.
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5 months ago
Comment: daily look
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jangseohee
2 years ago
unless it breaks up convincingly then the blue channel will take over
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elp jangseohee
2 years ago
Very well possible! If that's the case then the final 5th wave could even subdivide into an extension?
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jangseohee
2 years ago
here a peep into 1hr GER30, as you can see double top at my original white channel!
still look weak to me

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elp jangseohee
2 years ago
Comparing the euro with the dax, it's apparent they currently have an inverse correlation. Not implying the euro can not go lower which it can. The rsi on the euro is the most oversold in the euro's history. The rate of change has a posture where the euro has bounced, (1981 & 1997) where shorts were waiting at a higher level. Believe this could be the setup for the euro atm. If the inverse correlation continues, when the eur bounces the dax could hit resistance.
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jangseohee elp
2 years ago
yes i feel it that way too, however, it will mean that the ECB QE is a crap which cant work wonder like how Fed QE push SPX to all time highs
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elp jangseohee
2 years ago
Think ECB QE will push the euro markets higher, just think the euro could bounce to short higher into new all time lows. Dax pullbacks to long a lower levels to new all time highs, or a double top, tripple top???? What I have observed the last few years, when a cental bank wants to push markets higher, don't step in the way. Seems like the ECB wants to keep the Germans happy - complacent by pushing the Dax into hyperdrive.
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jangseohee elp
2 years ago
Euphoria bikini soap party :P
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jangseohee elp
2 years ago
yes, don fight the central banks, because they look at the charts like us too :-)
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elp jangseohee
2 years ago
True, and more money than we could make in a 1000 lifetimes. lol
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jangseohee elp
2 years ago
rofl
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Sokow PRO
2 years ago
I believe wave 5 ended and we get a bigger correction. See my analysis:

Correction in progress after wave 5
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elp Sokow
2 years ago
Very well possible! However, if the Dax continues to make HH and HL on a 1hr time frame, I am not looking for shorts. 12000 seems to be a magnet for the Dax currently.
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Sokow PRO elp
2 years ago
I agree totally with you. 12000 is the 0.618 fibo and therefore not impossible.
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AnbHfund
2 years ago
yup still some juice left .....wave 5 may be an extension there @blawrenceM has posted a chart and the high would be made just before or in 1st week of june .....June is the mother reversal which would be confirmed once FED starts increasing rates....will post an updated chart once DAX finds a bottom in 1st week of april ...
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elp AnbHfund
2 years ago
Sell in may and go away might be strong this year??? Although, if the euro/dax negative correlation continues, the fed raising rates and creating a strong dollar would weaken the euro. As a result could make the dax rally this summer. If 12000 is clearly taken out and holds as support, next big round number is 13000. FOMC could give some direction this week??? TY 4 the comment!
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elp
2 years ago
Possible w4 then a w5 up? if there is an overlap with w1, w5 could be finished?
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elp
2 years ago
If the DAX continues to go higher this could be some sort of exaustion rally??? Would think it would be a comb short squeeze with many traders trying to pick the top and ECB EQ. W5 could even extend where it subdivides into 5 waves.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
does look like some upside
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elp jangseohee
2 years ago
Also trading way outside of the top BB, which left of the charts has resulted in a correction.
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look4edge jangseohee
2 years ago
and what about this one?
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elp look4edge
2 years ago
Looks like resistance! US markets start selling off into early April, Dax could follow being over extended as it is.
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look4edge elp
2 years ago
and fdax Mar15 futures expired as well...
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elp look4edge
2 years ago
Yes that's true! It's looking real extended on the monthly chart no matter how one looks at it. Looking at it's 12 month MA when it trades 10% or more away from it, it always trades back to it.
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elp look4edge
2 years ago
Yhis could be the start W4 where Wave 3 is complete. Next could be a W5 up if this is not a huge ABC?
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look4edge elp
2 years ago
maybe longterm, but now revised fdax ew count and think w5 (minimum) still has to come, for me there is little chance to dip below 11200 (channel) soon
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jangseohee
2 years ago
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elp jangseohee
2 years ago
I think Monday will be an up day. Looking at the monday pattern for march, its been an up day, pullback into tuesday wednesday, base and start to rally. Also looking at a fib cycle, monday is fib cycle #3, don not know if it will mean anything? However, if price is bought and shows sighs of strength, new all time highs are possible with a short squeeze ecb qe combo
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US Markets have been strong all of March on monday.
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jangseohee elp
2 years ago
so DAX will keep going up vertically? non-stop
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elp jangseohee
2 years ago
did not imply this. look how the dax is trading way outside its monthly bb in a vertical ascent. everytime it has done so in the past the dax has had a correction. i think the dax currently has this posture. however, the dax can stay irrational longer than we can stay short where the shorts are fuel to thrust it to new highs. my plan is to buy observed support with a tight stop, bring it to BE asap, add to longs if it keeps on ripping. get out with $$$ asap. if support fails, then would look to sell resistance with a tight stop. i don't know what the dax is going to do, but its current bull trend is starting to look "long in the tooth".

also, noted there is a rhythm in march where monday has been an up day? maybe this could be the day the ecb injects money into the dax?????? if so????? i want to try to get my little slice.
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elp jangseohee
2 years ago
also, noticed the last time price was trading just as far outside the top monthly bb was in march 2000 this could be the same setup again, where price attempts to trade back up to highs? if it fails, would be a great short entry. year 2000 daily chart
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year 2015 4 hr chart, looking similar?
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jangseohee elp
2 years ago
yes, which is why my comparison is traced back to 2000
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elp elp
2 years ago
obserbation, looking at the m bb year 2000, when price was at monthly extremes compared with the top bb, price traded back to the m bb within a week, except feb which took almost a month.
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currently the top m bb sits at 11391
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jangseohee elp
2 years ago
way over 11391 now!!
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elp jangseohee
2 years ago
yes it is, and way over febs too. price will trade back to febs level too @ 10645 if history repeats. first 11391 though.
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elp elp
2 years ago
correction, feb 10937
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jangseohee elp
2 years ago
let them give it another push to 12500.. that way, price will not retrace slowly :-)
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elp jangseohee
2 years ago
Would be a nice short setup, traping longs at highs, where they are fuel for shorts
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jangseohee elp
2 years ago
Yummy
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CoreyInvesFB jangseohee
2 years ago
Love the ideas! Love the dax! Sometimes it doesnt love me as much as i love it though... lol
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elp
2 years ago
DAX seasonal charts 1955-2010 http://www.seasonalcharts.com/indices_langfrist_dax.html
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jangseohee elp
2 years ago
gotta check whether it happens this way yearly
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elp
2 years ago
The 50% fib short did not trade last week, however almost to the tick not adjusting the fib, price traded it this morning almost to the tick. This could just be a coincedence.
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Sokow PRO elp
2 years ago
I have two possible scenarios for the correction in place.


Number 1:
We have an W-X-Y correction. Wave c in wave Y should form 5 subwaves, so we should wait with the long position.

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Number 2:
We have a triangle in progress (as wave b) and after the triangle we have a last wave c which completes the wave (4).
Target for wave (4) is 0.618 fibo of wave (3).
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elp Sokow
2 years ago
Yes, this is a possible count. I would believe the middle BB needs to hold on the daily time frame to help confirm. Strong close below and price could trade towards its daily bottom BB
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Sokow PRO elp
2 years ago
Looks like the correction is over.
After wave (5) is completed your target 11218 is possible.

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IvanLabrie TOP Sokow
2 years ago
Looks good guys!
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elp Sokow
2 years ago
strong day today for sure. break the upper trendline that coincides with the hwb could see a quick rally to highs.
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elp
2 years ago
I think W3 could be in. If that's the case???? then would think the dax could retrace 38.2% of W3 I could be 100% wrong! But the 12000 level looks like resistance at the moment. Plus price on the monthly chart is trading way outside the top bolinger band which is a indication price could pullback looking left of the chart.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
if the day candle ends as hammer
we go north
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elp
2 years ago
I believe the wave 5 extension was at last weeks highs. Since w2 was a charp correction, alternation of w4 should be sideways or make a triangle.
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elp elp
2 years ago
An alternate count where the w5 extension could make one for rally higher to end w3. Breaking last weeks lows would invalidate this idea and breaking out to new highs would confirm it.
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elp elp
2 years ago
Making new highs on the dax would set up a good short, expecially if w 5 traded up to the top channel, like w1, w3 and w3 extension.
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elp
2 years ago
W4 seems to have been a sideways correction, if I am correct, today could be w1 of W5? An acquaintance pointed this kind of correction on the SPX today and it looks like the DAX is making a variation of it. TY Carlos! UR the best!
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elp
a year ago
On a monthly chart the DAX could correct back to 6298 and 30 year + trendline support. If this level breaks hard on a monthly close, the DAX could just melt down. Two possible monthly counts. 1st WXY where the 2015 highs are multi-year highs where the DAX goes into a winter period. 2nd, WXY and now an X down to 6298 with a Z up to all time highs for a double top or even new highs at 15018. This setup would take a few years.
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elp
11 months ago
Dax looks like it could trade to 8680ish
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elp
9 months ago
log chart 8600´s???
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