STOP @ 10900 TARGET 8100
Short-term overbought in a strong tape coupled with a low volume summer trading environment is not making for the most ideal trading conditions. I will continue to take it slow until volume and volatility picks up likely in early to mid-September. Brexit as a significant threat to the fragile economic recovery in the eurozone it s not the only risk to the Germany economy or stock market. The eurozone remains a ticking time bomb and while the risks may currently be among the lowest they’ve been for eight years, there is always something bubbling under the surface that could trigger the next crisis. The one that stands out currently is the issues in the banking sector, particularly in Italy where the size of the non-performing loans in certain banks has raised major concerns.The other risk that stands out is China. Back in August, panic sparked by the depreciation of the yuan but in reality caused by many underlying concerns with the economy caused the DAX to plummet by almost 20% in just under two weeks. This happened again in January this year when the DAX again fell by almost 20%, this time in the space of six weeks. There is no reason why this couldn’t happen again and clearly, the DAX is very vulnerable to such moves. Potentially due to its tight trade connections with China. It’s worth noting that substantial downside risks remain for the index and the higher it gets in the meantime, the higher these risks could become. Given that we’ve seen a close to 20% decline on the last two occasions that China has shaken global markets, we can’t write that off as being a possibility again. That said, it is again worth noting that we had a significant depreciation of the yuan over the last three months or so and investors were relatively unshaken by it. Perhaps the Brexit vote took the attention away from this or maybe as with everything in the markets, this has evolved and the next trigger will be different to the last two occasions.