alx13
Short

DAX - intermediate top in or just A-B-C correction?

FX:GER30   DAX index of German listed shares
After the never ending rally finally peaked, dax             had a vicious decline yesterday. Volatility was very high, almost 700 points intraday range.

The big question now is - is a more tradeable intermediate top in or not? In my opinion, the answer is yes, but we will not have confirmation until the market breaks down into an impulsive decline (5 waves). The strenght of the move yesterday points to a 3rd wave, which is why I think after the 4th wave bounce is in, the market will resume the decline and take out the lows. On the other hand, if the current bounce heads higher and overlaps the 1/A level at 11.075, that would put a dent on the more immediate downside potential.

So short term, I think the bounce could go a bit higher, ideally to around 10.950-11.000. The 50% retrace is also there (10970ish). At that point I would start looking for turn potential and the closer we get to the overlap at 11.075, the more confident I would be in building a short position.

Interesting enough, the strong decline lines up very well with the long term projection done by MCM, which points to more weakness in the next 2 weeks.

http://mcm-ct.com/blog/dax-initial-down-move-into-january-begins/

Good luck out there!
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