alx13

DAX - important top seems to be in

Short
FX:GER30   DAX Index
Dax almost reached the descending TL from the ATH and lower high and reversed quite strongly (more than 300 points). It seems my previous call was pretty accurate :)

With enough waves in place for the impulsive move off the lows to be complete, long positions should be approached with caution, since even in the bullish scenario that this is a new wave 1/A going up, the retrace of this strong move could be quite deep.

That being said, I believe it's sell the bounces time again, at least for a while. Longer term, this move did not overlap the blue 1/A, so it is possible that it is still a wave 4, with 5 to come which should take out the lows. In the bullish scenario mentioned above, this wave should be 2 or B, and I would keep an eye out for the typical Fib retrace numbers. The 200 day MA is just 100 points or so lower and that should also be watched carefuly to see the reaction.

Very interesting is that the longer term projection at mcm reveals that a long period of weakness has likely started for the dax . In this context, it comes in as very useful, together with the shorter term cycles, which also show impulses down in the making.

http://mcm-ct.com/blog/stair-step-down-l...

For any questions about the mcm analysis and tools, feel free to contact me at alex@mcm-ct.com

Good luck out there!

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