4xForecaster

#elliottwave Flat Signals Further Advance To 10996 | #DAX $EUR

FX:GER30   DAX index of German listed shares
dax
632 7 11
dax
Friends,

My original analysis from 22 JAN (see "Related Ideas" link below) called for a top-reversal at 10,037 and a decline to the 7568 level - Since it hit that level dead-on, price rolled, but recovered a larger part of that decline - Question is: Will we ever return to any bearish level again, now that central banks are publicly in the business of purchasing stocks .

On a pure technical term, the discreet Positive Divergence in RSI should give bulls pause to think a moment, as this discreet and rare event - in which RSI carves a lower low against a higher0high in price - is associated with an imminent rallying in price.


WORST CASE SCENARIO:

The same predictive/forecasting model that defined TG-Hi also defined the lower targets expected to be hit after a rally reversed.

However, a "Worst Case Scenario" run indicates that a contrarian target up above is exposing bears to additional risk . Indeed, there are in fact to possibilities, each widely ranged from one another at 10393 and 10996.


DID A ELLIOTT WAVE BULLISH FLAT FORM?

This brings use to the question: Did an Ellliott Wave Bullish Flat form to signal further advance to 10393, ... 10996?

If indeed price were to rally above the recent high, this would indicate that the decline from 10037, which failed to carver out a new low could possibly be a Bullish Flat.


A FLAT CALLS FOR HIGHER HIGHS:

Here is one way to verify: The Flat call for internal waves, such that Wave-A and Wave-B are Zig-Zags (i.e.: 3-wave structures), and the last Wave C is a 5-wave construct.

Looking at the current pattern, the first counter-trend Wave A does exhibit 3 waves. And so is Wave-B. Most importantly, Wave C maintained an elongation suggestive of a 5-wave construct. Overall, we are seeing a completed Bullish Flat, if I did not know any better


OVERALL:

I believe that we are witnessing a rally inspired by the completion of a Bullish Flat. If one is to remain uncertain of this possibility, it would still be worth keeping in sight whether price were ever to rally above the prior high.

Interestingly, a similar worst-case scenario was just completed on the e-Mini $S&P500, based on the potential formation of an Elliott Wave Extended Flat.


Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

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Thanks for the re-posting of the original analysis, David. I have covered my short position at about 9200, and since then I was looking for another bearish opportunity. Do you currently have any long trade on DAX?
Reply
12 SEP 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GER30: Long opp via #elliottwave Flat completion:

IF support holds @ 9572, THEN ...

snapshot


via @tradingview | $DAX
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snapshot



Traders,

Now that a Flat has completed its 3-3-5 internal structures, and that a new uptrend is developing, I recommend that you keep this one in your Bull Pen, and not shoo it off to the bearish caves as of yet.

Predictive Model is BULLISH, supporting the bullish range that was speculated at the beginning of this chart.

A simple and safe STRAT here would be to apply an algorithmic conditional approach, in the form of:

IF support @ 9572 holds, THEN: remain LONG.

For those interested in aggressive entry, I have included a "TRIGGER-1" level. A second trigger line is kept at a prior structural level.

I do not offer trading recommendation, and this explication of my method is for educational purpose only - As I always recommend: Do the due (diligence) and trade only the cookie jar monies.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Hi David. Seems like the price is heading to test the worst case scenario targets first before correction. I was kind of convinced that the price will meet the TG-1 after coming down from the "C" on the chart.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
Hello @HamedAghajani - DAX rallied following an EW extended Bullish Flat, as opposed to the expected regular flat version (Point-B resided higher than Point-A, hence the geometry correctly placed a Point-C at a lower residence than Point-A. This completed a perfect Extended Flat, and a much better geometric version than anticipated in my original analysis.

As indicated in the analysis, the EW's Flat is a continuation pattern. So, a visit to the Hix levels is now expected.


David
+2 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks, I was short in the past few month on this index and I was forced out on Friday. I will try to look for short opportunities once the price visited the Hix. Kind regards, Hamed.
+1 Reply
22 FEB 2015 - Update:

Looks like we have reached the outer-most bearish entrenchment level - Following is the newer chart announcement on Twitter:

From Twitter:
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$GER30 chart: Potential Reversal At 11224 Per Background WW Geo. | $DAX #forex.
Potential Reversal At 11224 Per Background WW Geo. | $DAX #forex

----------

Here is the new chart (a closer look at current situation):
snapshot


If the WW materializes in its completion at 5-prime, then watch for a potential decline to levels defined in H4, and possible in the lower ones defined in the original analysis of this thread.

Thanks.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
BTW - New analysis at H4 timeframe:

-
Potential Reversal At 11224 Per Background WW Geo. | $DAX #forex



David
+2 Reply
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