My original analysis from 22 JAN (see "Related Ideas" link below) called for a top-reversal at 10,037 and a decline to the 7568 level - Since it hit that level dead-on, price rolled, but recovered a larger part of that decline - Question is: Will we ever return to any level again, now that central banks are publicly in the business of purchasing stocks.
On a pure technical term, the discreet Positive Divergence in should give bulls pause to think a moment, as this discreet and rare event - in which carves a lower low against a higher0high in price - is associated with an imminent rallying in price.
WORST CASE SCENARIO:
The same predictive/forecasting model that defined TG-Hi also defined the lower targets expected to be hit after a rally reversed.
However, a "Worst Case Scenario" run indicates that a contrarian target up above is exposing bears to additional risk . Indeed, there are in fact to possibilities, each widely ranged from one another at 10393 and 10996.
DID A FLAT FORM?
This brings use to the question: Did an Ellliott Wave Flat form to signal further advance to 10393, ... 10996?
If indeed price were to rally above the recent high, this would indicate that the decline from 10037, which failed to carver out a new low could possibly be a Flat.
A FLAT CALLS FOR HIGHER HIGHS:
Here is one way to verify: The Flat call for internal waves, such that Wave-A and Wave-B are Zig-Zags (i.e.: 3-wave structures), and the last Wave C is a 5-wave construct.
Looking at the current pattern, the first counter-trend Wave A does exhibit 3 waves. And so is Wave-B. Most importantly, Wave C maintained an elongation suggestive of a 5-wave construct. Overall, we are seeing a completed Flat, if I did not know any better
I believe that we are witnessing a rally inspired by the completion of a Flat. If one is to remain uncertain of this possibility, it would still be worth keeping in sight whether price were ever to rally above the prior high.
Interestingly, a similar worst-case scenario was just completed on the e-Mini $S&P500, based on the potential formation of an Extended Flat.
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Looks like we have reached the outer-most bearish entrenchment level - Following is the newer chart announcement on Twitter:
$GER30 chart: Potential Reversal At 11224 Per Background WW Geo. | $DAX #forex.
Here is the new chart (a closer look at current situation):
If the WW materializes in its completion at 5-prime, then watch for a potential decline to levels defined in H4, and possible in the lower ones defined in the original analysis of this thread.
As indicated in the analysis, the EW's Flat is a continuation pattern. So, a visit to the Hix levels is now expected.
$GER30: Long opp via #elliottwave Flat completion:
IF support holds @ 9572, THEN ...
via @tradingview | $DAX
Now that a Flat has completed its 3-3-5 internal structures, and that a new uptrend is developing, I recommend that you keep this one in your Bull Pen, and not shoo it off to the bearish caves as of yet.
Predictive Model is BULLISH, supporting the bullish range that was speculated at the beginning of this chart.
A simple and safe STRAT here would be to apply an algorithmic conditional approach, in the form of:
IF support @ 9572 holds, THEN: remain LONG.
For those interested in aggressive entry, I have included a "TRIGGER-1" level. A second trigger line is kept at a prior structural level.
I do not offer trading recommendation, and this explication of my method is for educational purpose only - As I always recommend: Do the due (diligence) and trade only the cookie jar monies.