NFFX
Short

DAX - Butterfly Pattern Short.

FX:GER30   DAX Index
So I've been studying harmonics recently and have been waiting for this Butterfly to play out on the 4 hour chart, finally reached the 1.272 extension late Friday so ill be waiting for price action to take the short down to the 61.8 retracement of the AD leg of the pattern to about the 9650 region.

I'll be keeping a tight stop loss of about 50 pips away as when these patterns fail they fail hard and could end up going to the 1.618 extension , hence while ill be waiting for confirmation for the short off the 1.272 for a potential 550 pip reward so a nice 1:10 risk reward ratio.

Again just an idea as i am relatively new to trading these advanced patterns so any advice or critique then fire away :)
A pullback is possible but I don't see it being anywhere close to that kind of drop due to the likely QE announcement on Thursday. I expect support at 10k area +/- 100 points.
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NFFX JohnB1994
Yeh I think QE is inevitable this week, i think you're right the 10k area should hold even still not a bad risk/reward trade opportunity, let's see how it plays out!
+1 Reply
Yes I hope we do get a nice big pullback so I can close my shorts and then once support is found as we start heading up again, I will add long, (possibly with a trailing stop) and see how high it can get on the QE anticipation/news. Upon confirmation of QE, I expect a spike up but then people will want to take profit and it might reverse in the days after before resuming uptrend. Greek Election on 25th will also impact.
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