Update on the BEAR

FX:GER30   DAX Index
No major development since the 4th wave bounce started. Doing it's job of 4th wave quite well, I must admit :) In that it's confusing everyone.

There was a very interesting development yesterday though. The dax             came within 2 points of it's previous bounce from lows peak (where the 4? is) and then went down in a hury shedding more than 300 points. The fact that it didn't overlap the previous peak is important in that it keeps open the more bearish option that we have completed wave 4 at that previous peak and from there we made wave 1 and 2 (of 5 down). That would put us in wave 3 going down right now, which would be devastating for longs.

So, with the most bearish option still on the table, we have to be careful with the longs.

The not so bearish option is that we had only waves A and B of this 4th with C up still needing to complete. That would mean that the peak of the bounce will be taken out and the fact that we didn't overlap it on the 1st try is just an attempt by Mr. Market to trap the bears.

Invalidation of most bearish count is a reversal to the upside and eventual overlap of bounce peak high (at 11.383). Partial confirmation of the bearish count would come if we continue south, and take out the higher low (labeled red 1) on the chart.

The good news is we have an update on the projection from mcm. It shows a likely correction (was dead-on btw             ) but followed by a bigger bounce. Just something to keep in mind in this choppy market. Check out the article (it's free):
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