Sokow
Short

End of impulse wave 5 and correction coming?

FX:GER30   DAX index of German listed shares
After a very strong wave 3 we also have a very strong wave 5, which seems to find an end near the 12200 (fibo 1.0).
If wave 5 should end there we should see a bigger correction (in time and space) which will get in the area of wave 4 (marked in red as a-b-c).
Should wave 5 not stop at fibo 1.0 it may form an extended wave 5 which will run ultimately till 1.618 (nearly 12500).
elp
2 years ago
Agree a nice short is coming. The million euro question? When??? I´ve seen this in gold a few years back when W5 was the longest wave, which is typical of a strong bull market nearing resistance. Who know, maybe W5 pullsback where this is just W1 of W5?
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Sokow PRO elp
2 years ago
Seems like the correction is coming. Wave 3 and 5 are of equal length.

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Sokow PRO
2 years ago
The alternative scenario is still possible. We get an extended wave 5 and this is just a correction wave iv within the bigger wave. See this:
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elp Sokow
2 years ago
I agree with your short view. The RR is better to the downside at the moment. Looking at the dax on a monthly time frame, the dax is trading way outside its top bolinger band.
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Sokow PRO elp
2 years ago
Correction in progress...
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jimmy_hongkong
2 years ago
Well done, Sokow. You're the only person on this web who can correctly estimate the top of GER30 and calculate a-b-c accurately. Do you think DAX has completed the correction already? Going higher in late March and April?
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Sokow PRO jimmy_hongkong
2 years ago
Thank you very much!
To answer your question. Currently we see a complex correction in progress. But after the correction is over we should see GER30 running up to 13200.

Like always there is more than one valid scenario.

Scenario 1:
We have an W-X-Y correction. Wave c in wave Y should form 5 subwaves, so we should wait with the long position.

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Scenario 2:
We have a triangle in progress (as wave b) and after the triangle we have a last wave c which completes the wave (4).
Target for wave (4) is 0.618 fibo of wave (3)

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Let me know if that helps you!
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jimmy_hongkong Sokow
2 years ago
Thank you very much for your charts. As you indicated that in both your charts, wave (4) should be ended at 11700 level, and you see there will be a rebound to 13200 level. However, the index has just broken the 11700 level. Any possibilities to go down to 11600/11200/11000 level?
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Sokow PRO jimmy_hongkong
2 years ago
Thank you for your interest.
Yes there are still lower levels possible, but it should not fall below 11600 (the ending point of wave (1) - Elliott Rule: Wave 4 doesn't enter the price territory of wave 1)
I've updated the chart (the triangle is invalid).

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Sokow PRO jimmy_hongkong
2 years ago
Maybe the correction is over and we should see a good thrust upwards.

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jimmy_hongkong Sokow
2 years ago
Excellent analysis! Like what you've said earlier, DAX really has not broken the support area 11600 and it has rebounded. So, what is your target level for this rebound? 12500? When do you expect DAX can reach your target? In a week time?
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Sokow PRO jimmy_hongkong
2 years ago
Thank you. DAX opened with a gap this morning and we see a powerful move upwards.
Target is between 12500 and 13000, maybe we get near 13500. I think that 12500 is possible for this week.

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jimmy_hongkong Sokow
2 years ago
Sokow, it seems that you have a magic crystal ball. There is a gap when it was opened today. Do you see there would be a pullback to fill the gap prior to rising to 12500? Thank you very much for updating the charts!
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Sokow PRO
2 years ago
Is this the completion of wave (5) or do we get an extended wave 3 in wave (5)?
Your opinion please :-)

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jimmy_hongkong Sokow
2 years ago
Sokow, I am not an expert of Elliot. I mainly focus on candle sticks. However, base on my observation, DAX has broken its' downward trend line on 30 March and it should be moving up. I think that there may be a little correction before going upward. There is some support at the bottom of its' trend line i.e. 11850-11870 level. Probably, DAX will move upward to 12500+ starting from tomorrow (2 April). I also compare DAX with DOWI, Dow should move upward to 18300 after the 200.19 points correction on 31 March (noted that DOWI futures is currently 11475 on 1 April, which is another 300 points correction). What do you think?
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Sokow PRO jimmy_hongkong
2 years ago
Hey Jimmy,
I've updated my chart. The experiment failed ;-) Look at following:

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jimmy_hongkong Sokow
2 years ago
Hi Sokow, DAX looks a bit weird recently. Have you changed your short term target 12500? Thank you.
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