Sokow
Short

End of impulse wave 5 and correction coming?

FX:GER30   DAX index of German listed shares
After a very strong wave 3 we also have a very strong wave 5, which seems to find an end near the 12200 (fibo 1.0).
If wave 5 should end there we should see a bigger correction (in time and space) which will get in the area of wave 4 (marked in red as a-b-c).
Should wave 5 not stop at fibo 1.0 it may form an extended wave 5 which will run ultimately till 1.618 (nearly 12500).
Is this the completion of wave (5) or do we get an extended wave 3 in wave (5)?
Your opinion please :-)

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Sokow, I am not an expert of Elliot. I mainly focus on candle sticks. However, base on my observation, DAX has broken its' downward trend line on 30 March and it should be moving up. I think that there may be a little correction before going upward. There is some support at the bottom of its' trend line i.e. 11850-11870 level. Probably, DAX will move upward to 12500+ starting from tomorrow (2 April). I also compare DAX with DOWI, Dow should move upward to 18300 after the 200.19 points correction on 31 March (noted that DOWI futures is currently 11475 on 1 April, which is another 300 points correction). What do you think?
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Sokow PRO jimmy_hongkong
Hey Jimmy,
I've updated my chart. The experiment failed ;-) Look at following:

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Hi Sokow, DAX looks a bit weird recently. Have you changed your short term target 12500? Thank you.
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Well done, Sokow. You're the only person on this web who can correctly estimate the top of GER30 and calculate a-b-c accurately. Do you think DAX has completed the correction already? Going higher in late March and April?
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Sokow PRO jimmy_hongkong
Thank you very much!
To answer your question. Currently we see a complex correction in progress. But after the correction is over we should see GER30 running up to 13200.

Like always there is more than one valid scenario.

Scenario 1:
We have an W-X-Y correction. Wave c in wave Y should form 5 subwaves, so we should wait with the long position.

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Scenario 2:
We have a triangle in progress (as wave b) and after the triangle we have a last wave c which completes the wave (4).
Target for wave (4) is 0.618 fibo of wave (3)

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Let me know if that helps you!
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Thank you very much for your charts. As you indicated that in both your charts, wave (4) should be ended at 11700 level, and you see there will be a rebound to 13200 level. However, the index has just broken the 11700 level. Any possibilities to go down to 11600/11200/11000 level?
+1 Reply
Sokow PRO jimmy_hongkong
Thank you for your interest.
Yes there are still lower levels possible, but it should not fall below 11600 (the ending point of wave (1) - Elliott Rule: Wave 4 doesn't enter the price territory of wave 1)
I've updated the chart (the triangle is invalid).

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Sokow PRO jimmy_hongkong
Maybe the correction is over and we should see a good thrust upwards.

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Excellent analysis! Like what you've said earlier, DAX really has not broken the support area 11600 and it has rebounded. So, what is your target level for this rebound? 12500? When do you expect DAX can reach your target? In a week time?
+1 Reply
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