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Kumowizard
Jun 3, 2014 8:57 AM

DAX - How much QE is priced in? Short

DAX index of German listed sharesFXCM

Description

Honestly, I don't know. No one knows. These equity mkts are totally distorted after 6 years of insane money printing, which was good for one thing: caused asset inflation all over the world, made impossible the proper pricing of asset classes based on old models and made investors less and less sensitive to risk factors.

Anyway, manias and bubbles are not new, they have always occured from time to time. But until price goes up, it is bullish.... until. I don't want to sound super bearish again, as even if we see a correction here down to 9700-9750, the daily chart would still stay bullish. But Daily Slow Stoch, MACD, 4 Hrs DMI, Chikou Span and Heiken Ashi all seem to call for a small reversal and pull back.

Supports are: 9880 / 9750-9780. If price breaks below 9750 on 4 Hrs (This has less chance now), then it would bring a deeper correction and a counter trend against the Daily bullish setup with a lower possible tgts to supports: 9510 / 9385.

All depends on ECB, and rather on what mkt participants have already built in prices according to their anticipated expectations.
Comments
Kumowizard
Bearish countertrend signals confirmed on both 1 Hr and 4 Hrs time frames. However I think there's good chance 9750-9780 levels first will block the move and we'll see a pop up from there. Unless ECB decision tomorrow comes out as really disappointing for Bulls. Then more stops could hit price through the primer short term uptrend, targetting the above mentionned 9500 area.
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