DAX: Is lagging SP500 by some 17% in USD terms this year. Has been strong recently. Is expecting a lot from Draghi's QE. But DAX has huge resistance in the area 10200.
There is a possibility we just had a 1 year topping process.
It is difficult to manage large size future on this ballistic index.
Solution: Buy 8500 Mar put for 56... Invest 50bp. can multiply by 20 if things really go sour or you amortise 12bp a month.
Comments
hajouji.yassine
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Hello Yacine. Why a huge resistance at 10200 ? For me the resistance is in the zone 10050...
YaKa
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If this chart means something, the capping line is the red one (above). this line was at 10050 in May but climbs (slowly) and is now at 10,200.
Note: you are dealing with the DAX, an excess of 100pts intraday is possible.
YaKa
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Actually market allowing, I d like to see a shooting star with shade beyond 10,200...
But there has been over anticipation of the meeting tomorrow and I am not sure there is enough surprise effect to generate the 3% move on dax. Probably not actually... anyway i suggest 4 months options so 10050 or 10200 is irrelevant here.
Hi Mickette,
I think the catalyst tomorrow will do.
everything is possible.
it is only trading game plan from here:
1) falls straight
2) shortable spike to 10200
3) extensive breakout to significant highs 11000/11600. A major event that would open the sky. (I dont believe but that is the bullish case)
Mickette
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Thank you Yacine for taking the time to answer me.
Here my roadmap with the extended AB-CD max. target and its respective reversal targets. One staying in the trend channel and the other the "regular" one. My favorite reversal target is the "regular one" @ 9373.50, the monthly July close (MA200 on the 4H scala chart).
pic-upload.de/view-25447625/chart-03122014-1615-LS-DAX.png.html
YaKa
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Yes Mickette, your last chart is good. This is target tomorrow if there is enthusiasm on the news.
10,200 is my red line in the chart above and that could be (insist on "could") the top.
Mickette
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Let´s hope for this expected downdraft. Safe trade Yacine!