Trading day. A difficult one. GLOBALPRIME:GER30
The day started. I woke up a bit too early and lay in bed for the next hour and a bit. Rolled over and had a look at the night's notifications. Nothing important. I opened my laptop. This was the first mistake. A laptop with wifi and a trackpad. Suboptimal. I found my login, successfully logged in and adjusted my lot size. Next issue. I was trying to enter “20” lots. It didn’t work. Why? Minutes later, 2 mt5 restarts later I realized; the contract size was 100: 20 lots = 1000/point. Way too big. Oops. Luckily mt5 didn’t let me enter that. I need to pay more attention to little details.
I quickly downloaded the Tradingview desktop app, installed and logged in. Opened DAX chart. Waited for open. Next mistake: directly after open I placed a trade. Not even 5 minutes had passed. I placed my trades according to the premarket data and 1 min chart. Terrible way to go about the open. I was short the DAX. 20/point - 35 ish point stop - 700$ loss. 1.5%. WAY TOO BIG. However I accepted the size and moved on. Why? My ego was bolstered after the fact that my trading stats were good. I had compiled them the day before. 50-60% WR with my winners being on average 3.5x bigger than losing trades. I didn’t even think about the size. Not great. Now I was in a position, taken off the 1min chart and premarket data, with a rough assumption that the markets were supposed to be headed lower. To make things worse the trade was placed on my laptop with a trackpad. By the time I placed the trade my risk had effectively doubled. Stop went from 17 to 35 points. The market had moved 17 points lower whilst I was still to get my trade in, on an idea that I had had for the last 2-3 minutes. To sell above the bars just before open. It took me 17 points.
Ok. Now I was short. Too big position due to the delayed entry, off a one minute chart and mostly premarket data. Not much backed this trade up. And I risked 1.5% of my account on it? Why? Because I thought the DAX was headed lower. Side note: the index was up 1% premarket, following a 2% bull trend day. From a longer time frame there was nothing else to do but buy. But still I was short. Why? The previous day might give us the answer: here it is:
A similar scenario. I wanted to be short. However with key differences to the actual trading day:
They’re similar to each other, sure. But there’s major differences. The previous chart had had a 5% bear day before. Sellers were still about. A bearish continuation was highly possible. Favored even. It played out early. A 200 point move to the downside, set off by a weak open. (Another key difference to today) today had a bull bar, albeit with tail on top as the first bar, followed by a weak bear bar with lots of tail compared to the previous day of strong bear + weak bull. This was a key difference.
Price action wise there was an exit for this trade at the close of the second bar of the session. Did I take it? No. It would’ve been a small looser 6-7 points (a 10 point winner if the entry had been proper).
Why did I not exit? Well, I was hoping to see something. Something that had ingrained itself into my mind. So much so that I completely disregarded what was actually in-front of me. (Weakish) bull plus weak bear. I was frustrated and wanted to see something. That something never came and I was stopped out on the massive bull bar that followed.
But how did the loss feel? And how did keeping the position open feel? Strangely, I was not uncomfortable. I took the trade confidently and was confident, against all odds. Alright, the trade wasn’t taken in the best way possible. However it was a relatively decent short. Moving on.
Here is where the real problems begin. The trade before just didn’t work out. Maybe I was unlucky.
A very big bull bar. 50 points. Big bull surprise. Ok, the bulls won this one. It will likely be a trend day up. This is what I told myself in the moment. What do you do on a trend day? There’s so many tempting counter trend entries. It looks weak. It just feels right to get short. It looks like the wedge, or double top or similar reversal pattern will work at any second. A tiny bit of risk for a huge reward, that’s what our brain loves. We love risking little and winning big. That’s the whole concept that the lottery exploits. If lottery tickets were to cost 100K with a chance of winning 200K, do you think anyone would be buying them? No, definitely not. Even though the chances of winning would be inherently bigger. Our minds love security and just the slightest chance of a big winner. It hinders one majorly in a trend day. What you should do is the opposite. Use a wider stop and just go with the trend. If it’s a strong trend, started by a bar like the above you can buy anything. Bull bars, bear bars, opens, retracements. The worst entries will become profitabel since the markets will creep their way up. I was aware of this. I knew what I had to do. LONG.
Initially I opened a long on the close of that big bull bar. I closed it on the bar with the long tail. 15 point profit. Why? Because I saw a wedge on the 1 min chart. It was a good sell signal.
Imagine this: a wedge (reversal signal), your risk would be about 10-15 points with a target of 30-70 points, depending on how long you want to be in the trade. Would you take it?
I did. And the markets just went higher. This happened twice. I tried selling into the trend and was consequently always stopped. I was comfortable keeping the shorts. They felt good. This is another indication that something is wrong. Futures trading should feel uncomfortable. This was already said by Charlie D, portryed in the book "The legendary Bond trader". This is one of the most important parts: (This is taken from Tom Hoougard, an exceptional trader that has helped me massively, especially in the mental department):
After two losses I realized. The pain had caught up with me. It was delayed. I went long. I added on the retracement. But then I left with stops at BE. I returned to being stopped out, after a three legged trend move up. 2 bulls flags. Unfortunate, however, I'm proud of that part. I stayed in. I overcame my instinct to take profit. It didn’t pay off this time, but it will eventually. I will be in on the next 200 point rally.
This is one of the hardest mental games to play. If you're just slightly off, you won't win.
How do I go about fixing this and making sure it doesn't happen again?
A few suggestions: Take a step back. Stand up and leave the room, walk around and come back. You will have a brand new perspective on the matter at hand.
Another idea: focus on the process: focus on what you see at hand. We all want one outcome: profit and winners. However we don't get that by imagining that outcome. How do we get it? We need to stay in the moment, we need to stay in the process. We need to see what is presented to us and act accordingly. This may be difficult to do in the moment, however one needs to be able to think clearly and execute on those thoughts in the trading moment.
The day started. I woke up a bit too early and lay in bed for the next hour and a bit. Rolled over and had a look at the night's notifications. Nothing important. I opened my laptop. This was the first mistake. A laptop with wifi and a trackpad. Suboptimal. I found my login, successfully logged in and adjusted my lot size. Next issue. I was trying to enter “20” lots. It didn’t work. Why? Minutes later, 2 mt5 restarts later I realized; the contract size was 100: 20 lots = 1000/point. Way too big. Oops. Luckily mt5 didn’t let me enter that. I need to pay more attention to little details.
I quickly downloaded the Tradingview desktop app, installed and logged in. Opened DAX chart. Waited for open. Next mistake: directly after open I placed a trade. Not even 5 minutes had passed. I placed my trades according to the premarket data and 1 min chart. Terrible way to go about the open. I was short the DAX. 20/point - 35 ish point stop - 700$ loss. 1.5%. WAY TOO BIG. However I accepted the size and moved on. Why? My ego was bolstered after the fact that my trading stats were good. I had compiled them the day before. 50-60% WR with my winners being on average 3.5x bigger than losing trades. I didn’t even think about the size. Not great. Now I was in a position, taken off the 1min chart and premarket data, with a rough assumption that the markets were supposed to be headed lower. To make things worse the trade was placed on my laptop with a trackpad. By the time I placed the trade my risk had effectively doubled. Stop went from 17 to 35 points. The market had moved 17 points lower whilst I was still to get my trade in, on an idea that I had had for the last 2-3 minutes. To sell above the bars just before open. It took me 17 points.
Ok. Now I was short. Too big position due to the delayed entry, off a one minute chart and mostly premarket data. Not much backed this trade up. And I risked 1.5% of my account on it? Why? Because I thought the DAX was headed lower. Side note: the index was up 1% premarket, following a 2% bull trend day. From a longer time frame there was nothing else to do but buy. But still I was short. Why? The previous day might give us the answer: here it is:
A similar scenario. I wanted to be short. However with key differences to the actual trading day:
They’re similar to each other, sure. But there’s major differences. The previous chart had had a 5% bear day before. Sellers were still about. A bearish continuation was highly possible. Favored even. It played out early. A 200 point move to the downside, set off by a weak open. (Another key difference to today) today had a bull bar, albeit with tail on top as the first bar, followed by a weak bear bar with lots of tail compared to the previous day of strong bear + weak bull. This was a key difference.
Price action wise there was an exit for this trade at the close of the second bar of the session. Did I take it? No. It would’ve been a small looser 6-7 points (a 10 point winner if the entry had been proper).
Why did I not exit? Well, I was hoping to see something. Something that had ingrained itself into my mind. So much so that I completely disregarded what was actually in-front of me. (Weakish) bull plus weak bear. I was frustrated and wanted to see something. That something never came and I was stopped out on the massive bull bar that followed.
But how did the loss feel? And how did keeping the position open feel? Strangely, I was not uncomfortable. I took the trade confidently and was confident, against all odds. Alright, the trade wasn’t taken in the best way possible. However it was a relatively decent short. Moving on.
Here is where the real problems begin. The trade before just didn’t work out. Maybe I was unlucky.
A very big bull bar. 50 points. Big bull surprise. Ok, the bulls won this one. It will likely be a trend day up. This is what I told myself in the moment. What do you do on a trend day? There’s so many tempting counter trend entries. It looks weak. It just feels right to get short. It looks like the wedge, or double top or similar reversal pattern will work at any second. A tiny bit of risk for a huge reward, that’s what our brain loves. We love risking little and winning big. That’s the whole concept that the lottery exploits. If lottery tickets were to cost 100K with a chance of winning 200K, do you think anyone would be buying them? No, definitely not. Even though the chances of winning would be inherently bigger. Our minds love security and just the slightest chance of a big winner. It hinders one majorly in a trend day. What you should do is the opposite. Use a wider stop and just go with the trend. If it’s a strong trend, started by a bar like the above you can buy anything. Bull bars, bear bars, opens, retracements. The worst entries will become profitabel since the markets will creep their way up. I was aware of this. I knew what I had to do. LONG.
Initially I opened a long on the close of that big bull bar. I closed it on the bar with the long tail. 15 point profit. Why? Because I saw a wedge on the 1 min chart. It was a good sell signal.
Imagine this: a wedge (reversal signal), your risk would be about 10-15 points with a target of 30-70 points, depending on how long you want to be in the trade. Would you take it?
I did. And the markets just went higher. This happened twice. I tried selling into the trend and was consequently always stopped. I was comfortable keeping the shorts. They felt good. This is another indication that something is wrong. Futures trading should feel uncomfortable. This was already said by Charlie D, portryed in the book "The legendary Bond trader". This is one of the most important parts: (This is taken from Tom Hoougard, an exceptional trader that has helped me massively, especially in the mental department):
After two losses I realized. The pain had caught up with me. It was delayed. I went long. I added on the retracement. But then I left with stops at BE. I returned to being stopped out, after a three legged trend move up. 2 bulls flags. Unfortunate, however, I'm proud of that part. I stayed in. I overcame my instinct to take profit. It didn’t pay off this time, but it will eventually. I will be in on the next 200 point rally.
This is one of the hardest mental games to play. If you're just slightly off, you won't win.
How do I go about fixing this and making sure it doesn't happen again?
A few suggestions: Take a step back. Stand up and leave the room, walk around and come back. You will have a brand new perspective on the matter at hand.
Another idea: focus on the process: focus on what you see at hand. We all want one outcome: profit and winners. However we don't get that by imagining that outcome. How do we get it? We need to stay in the moment, we need to stay in the process. We need to see what is presented to us and act accordingly. This may be difficult to do in the moment, however one needs to be able to think clearly and execute on those thoughts in the trading moment.