Dax: Massive monthly downtrend

FX:GER30   DAX Index
I had posted bullish setups in the past, which got invalidated.
At the time, I didn't expect such a massive sell signal to emerge, but now it's confirmed.
This serves as demonstration, since you can't enter safely now, but you can know the direction the index will take in the intermediate term.

The downtrend signal aims for 7430, in the span of 5 months max, which is a very significant correction.
The overall picture remains potentially bullish or range bound, once said target is hit, or this signal invalidated.
Since price is below the ichimoku tenkan and kijun sen lines, and is about to close under a previous uptrend monthly mode, while forming a new low, it's highly probable to see a continued selloff until my target is hit.
I'd grade this as a 60-70% chance based on my experience with this method.

This confirms the possibility of seeing EURUSD reach my monthly target at 1.21397 as well, which helps me stay in my trade until we get there.
If we manage to see a new 24 month low in rgmov, then I'd suspect the downtrend might continue and break the ichimoku cloud support, and head for a retest of lower support levels, and last well into 2016.

Good luck,
Trade closed manually: Trade not stopped but I believe that the intermarket picture has changed. I'll post an updated monthly chart.
IvanLabrie IvanLabrie
Original SL is fine, or daily 3x ATR.
IvanLabrie IvanLabrie
Both work, risk 1-2% and tp half or 75% at 9340.
Masisve, down to where,,,
It's a monthly chart.
Things are pretty dynamic. The problem with publication is that you can't udpate it day to day ro reflect changes in sentiment etc.
Here it's simple, we have some minimal upside, before this massive downtrend continues and it will happen during this week.
B120626 IvanLabrie
yeah, on the monthly period, perhaps this will come true, but damn it's hard to stomach the drawdowns :(
but we just need to keep in mind the tricks the market sets up for traders. this is on my radar to short. I didn't trust it this week, but will watch closely for next week. thanks
We might have the short standing right in front of our faces here.
The forecast is still valid.
EURUSD will rally asap I think, so naturally, Dax should fall.
B120626 IvanLabrie
thanks. so you see continued weakness in USD? I'm watching this current earnings season to see how the stronger USD during 3rd qtr affects earnings of us companies with large forex risk, assuming negative bottom line effects, especially from Aug 24 dump.

i like your interesting note about using AUDUSD as leading indicator on Gold daily chart. Right now i'm seeing Gold catching up to the price action of AUDUSD, but I am noticing AUDUSD appears to be entering a tight range area, (price is not moving up as much as before) so I'll be watching for a pullback in the aussie, and then a pullback in Gold.
B120626 B120626
nevermind, i was looking at 4hr period not daily period.
(Check out the Weekly 'Easy short' chart...I really missed out there hehe).
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