(1) There was a perfect setup against key trendline at 11,850 (blue line in Logarithmic). Obvious perfection often does not work > Solution: undershoot or overshoot. Here: Overshoot 4%.
(2) Elliott - At 12,208, the Elliott wave pattern since Dec14 is complete. Wave iv of 5 of V in Big III.
(3) Fibonacci - In those waves, Wave V = Wave III and wave v = wave iii
(4) Hidden trendline – The red line on the chart below is probably very important (especially the way it was fitted in Jun14) – Likely to retain.
(5) R3 annual hit at 12,206 – That alone is a very important statistical target (note how the Pivot retained exactly in Jan15).
(6) ATR Band (proprietary indicator): the top band is at 11,700, there was a 5% excess. This is unlikely to get more stretched before some lateralisation and moving average catchup.
(8) We do not have a long lasting global phenomenon like in January 2000. This is only a DAX story for now.
(9) EURUSD which has been the initiator of this move is not marking new lows and could actually rebound from here.
(10) Unless SP500 breaks 2100 again, it is probably subject to a correction below 2000.
(11) Extremely bullish News Flow this weekend given the close on Friday – Consistent with TOPS (necessary but not sufficient though).
(12) Time sequence – 26 days up in wave V – that is consistent with previous vertical climax since May13.
(13) Time Sequence – Last week completed 9 weeks vertical up – The likelyhood of a top or at least some weeks down is increasing.
(14) Progress: 46% From Oct14 to Mar15 (5 months) - Note that Big wave I was also 45% from Oct11 to Mar12 (5months).
Confirmation: trading below 11,800
Invalidation: trading above 12,450
My Pain Stop for now: 12,350