If you believe, the market could collapse and if you believe there will be no Santa Claus rally this year (which is very stat contrarian)...
Then the short is now: below key support but still close to it.
9650 not trivial to pass up... if so stop 9750. C'est la vie.
I have a picture view down, one that is wrong or needs to ignore all daily attempts higher and use them as re-short opportunity.
I could be wrong as always. My view is too strong, can't trade against it.
NOW: Let's bee clear not all buy signal work. We are still in the high 30 percentile.
The chart below shows that the same dynamic occurred and led higher earlier in the year. I just think this wont reproduce... Both scenario coexist.
Here, it is binary. One way or the other. You believe or you dont. You trade or you dont. You have a good game plan or you dont.
Better trade with momentum indicator.
it trades below weekly and monthly pivots: short
but so far it trades above daily pivot: you could be right.
Time will tell.
Russia definitely is the Catalyst driving right now.. But I had the 20% correction before that.. There is something feeding through (whether tangible or not). Here it is tangible. ISIS in August was less tangible and Ebola in October was not either. Interesting enough, it totally disappeared from the news flow a week after the October low. Market and Media needs to put their hand onto something to justify/explain a move...
you may be right.
however: 6month is a hell of a lot of time. Draghi, the magician, has managed to stabilise markets with words since July12.... Super smart.
1 The news of the QE is there, digested and over anticipated.
2 I am not convinced a QE would work and so is the market apparently (look at japan failed start)
3 I am not even sure he will deliver (Deposit rate being negative, it is not certain banks would participate) + rates already low anyway, what's the point...
I actually think a good correction here would be beneficial for the real economy as Yellen/Draghi could push more intervention to support the real economy and the market at the same time...
Regarding QE working or not, it's not about the long term, because in the heat of the moment, you will have a surge in stock markets, just like the one in Japan, and I personally want to be long during that surge, if I can. Hopefully, Yellen will trash the markets tonight with a hawkish speech and that should stir up some risk aversion
Note though: Japan QE was surprise and the market was in bull posture. Here draghi may disappoint, be it just on the wording and the market could fall. over priced, over anticipated, hope is high... so can be disappointment in the price action.
I dont know, let's see and trade the days as they come.