FX:GER30   DAX index of German listed shares
385 34 3

If you believe, the market could collapse and if you believe there will be no Santa Claus rally this year (which is very stat contrarian)...

Then the short is now: below key support but still close to it.
Mickette
2 years ago
My view on the DAX on the weekly basis. You can observe the strong rejection zone where it occured yesterday.
http://www11.pic-upload.de/17.12.14/eetrrb853j3h.png
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Mickette
2 years ago
http://www.pic-upload.de/view-25579192/chart-17122014-0910-LS-DAX.png.html
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YaKa PRO Mickette
2 years ago
well below 9406, it can ride down.
9650 not trivial to pass up... if so stop 9750. C'est la vie.
I have a picture view down, one that is wrong or needs to ignore all daily attempts higher and use them as re-short opportunity.
I could be wrong as always. My view is too strong, can't trade against it.
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piloteiat
2 years ago
for now it looks like cup&handle on hourly - needs hourly close below midas channel from the low and EMA 622 (number of bars from the low)
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YaKa PRO piloteiat
2 years ago
So you are bullish Piloteiat? ok.
I think until yellen it is going to be volatility only... many hours to go and the hourly vol is just huge right now.
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piloteiat YaKa
2 years ago
just looking what charts tell me : bull signal above 9605 and bear below 9447
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YaKa PRO piloteiat
2 years ago
Yes. Sound Trading Plan, in the flow of things. Agree.
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Mickette piloteiat
2 years ago
CUP: completed. Handle: run to 50% extension (9700)
AB-CD upmove: target 9700 (2014 average support level)
By 9700 approx. is the red down running main line on my charts
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YaKa PRO Mickette
2 years ago
I think 8800 end of week.. Our spread is just 1000pts... I would stop just above your target though..
lets leave it a few days now.
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look4edge Mickette
2 years ago
may you have a look at the chart as harmonic analyst, pls. i have found harmonic? pattern, which does not qualify for 5-0 nor cypher, it is kind of hybrid of them, but retraced to 38.2 so far, btw, found same structure on spx chart as well, thx

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Mickette look4edge
2 years ago
That´s nothing Harmonic my trading friend :-)
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Mickette look4edge
2 years ago
Here the one (ANTI BUTTERFLY BEAR) and its reversal target has just been completed http://www11.pic-upload.de/17.12.14/eetrrb853j3h.png
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look4edge Mickette
2 years ago
thx. for reply, appreciate your inputs
your chart looks like from guidants/godmode-trader, doesn`t? nice site btw.
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Mickette look4edge
2 years ago
Thanks look4edge :-)
I always look for the esthetical aspect by presenting a chart ;-)
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look4edge Mickette
2 years ago
and this one for 5-0? little off topic but relevant as it is leading index and just fell out from wedge
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YaKa PRO look4edge
2 years ago
The reasonning of buying whichever way you construct it, is valid.
NOW: Let's bee clear not all buy signal work. We are still in the high 30 percentile.
The chart below shows that the same dynamic occurred and led higher earlier in the year. I just think this wont reproduce... Both scenario coexist.
Here, it is binary. One way or the other. You believe or you dont. You trade or you dont. You have a good game plan or you dont.
Better trade with momentum indicator.
it trades below weekly and monthly pivots: short
but so far it trades above daily pivot: you could be right.
Time will tell.

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Mickette YaKa
2 years ago
Today Yellen, tomorrow Putin...
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charlie.delta.trader Mickette
2 years ago
Yeellen save the world.
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Mickette charlie.delta.trader
2 years ago
As Ben also.
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Mickette charlie.delta.trader
2 years ago
From the EW perspective + intact Bull Market trend it makes sense.
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YaKa PRO Mickette
2 years ago
My view: the psychology is about to change. We are entering a space where intervention will be followed by failure. Like in 2008 when Hank Paulson was trying hard.
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Mickette YaKa
2 years ago
One thing to think about... ongoing capital flight from all the EMs weak currencies. Bubble in Bonds + Stocks. Russia is the present new "shock wave". Am I wrong on this?
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YaKa PRO Mickette
2 years ago
I dont think there is a bubble in stocks yet but it does not mean they can't correct 20%.
Russia definitely is the Catalyst driving right now.. But I had the 20% correction before that.. There is something feeding through (whether tangible or not). Here it is tangible. ISIS in August was less tangible and Ebola in October was not either. Interesting enough, it totally disappeared from the news flow a week after the October low. Market and Media needs to put their hand onto something to justify/explain a move...
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YaKa PRO YaKa
2 years ago
+ note that in the first 5 days down, Russia was not driving the move..
+ note that in the last 40usd down, Crude did not affect anything...
- All of a sudden in the last few days, HY traded badly and so Russia... So the effect of Crude was very backloaded and now it is taking the front seat.
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Mickette YaKa
2 years ago
WTI crude " taking front seat" outlook
Not really...
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Mickette YaKa
2 years ago
" Market and Media needs to put their hand onto something to justify/explain a move..."
I agree 100% on this.
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YaKa PRO Mickette
2 years ago
Price remain real though even if what s driving them is not... Hence the possible extended divergence with reality which does not matter because we trade something that has its own reality.
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I think that the target is too far away. I agree with the fact that markets look very topy, but if I will see Dax at 8500, I will be happy to start taking profits. I don't have a position on the Dax due to contract size and commisions, but I have a position in Allianz AG which is highly correlated, and it's a perfect proxy. Keep in mind that no matter what the FED says tonight, Mr. Draghi is likely to announce QE in the next few months, probably in January. As it always happens, some smart people will know about this before it actually happens, and considering that the holiday season is coming now, I find it hard to believe that the Dax can fall that much in a couple of weeks. Anyway, I hope it goes where you say it might, and we'll both be two happy traders.
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YaKa PRO vlad.adrian
2 years ago
Vlad,
you may be right.

however: 6month is a hell of a lot of time. Draghi, the magician, has managed to stabilise markets with words since July12.... Super smart.

1 The news of the QE is there, digested and over anticipated.
2 I am not convinced a QE would work and so is the market apparently (look at japan failed start)
3 I am not even sure he will deliver (Deposit rate being negative, it is not certain banks would participate) + rates already low anyway, what's the point...

I actually think a good correction here would be beneficial for the real economy as Yellen/Draghi could push more intervention to support the real economy and the market at the same time...
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vlad.adrian PRO YaKa
2 years ago
I am not fundamental analyst, but a fundamentalist I follow expects Draghi to deliver in January, that is why I said that there is not enough time. Obviously 6 months would be an awful lot.

Regarding QE working or not, it's not about the long term, because in the heat of the moment, you will have a surge in stock markets, just like the one in Japan, and I personally want to be long during that surge, if I can. Hopefully, Yellen will trash the markets tonight with a hawkish speech and that should stir up some risk aversion
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YaKa PRO vlad.adrian
2 years ago
ok, makes sense.

Note though: Japan QE was surprise and the market was in bull posture. Here draghi may disappoint, be it just on the wording and the market could fall. over priced, over anticipated, hope is high... so can be disappointment in the price action.

I dont know, let's see and trade the days as they come.
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vlad.adrian PRO YaKa
2 years ago
Yes, totally agree with that. That was one of the rare cases when fundamentals preceded technicals. I am a firm believer that technicals precede fundamentals almost all the time.
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Geert2000 PRO
2 years ago
http://stks.co/a1O7V
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