FX:GER30   DAX index of German listed shares
387 34 3

If you believe, the market could collapse and if you believe there will be no Santa Claus rally this year (which is very stat contrarian)...

Then the short is now: below key support but still close to it.
My view on the DAX on the weekly basis. You can observe the strong rejection zone where it occured yesterday.
http://www11.pic-upload.de/17.12.14/eetrrb853j3h.png
Reply
http://www.pic-upload.de/view-25579192/chart-17122014-0910-LS-DAX.png.html
Reply
YaKa PRO Mickette
well below 9406, it can ride down.
9650 not trivial to pass up... if so stop 9750. C'est la vie.
I have a picture view down, one that is wrong or needs to ignore all daily attempts higher and use them as re-short opportunity.
I could be wrong as always. My view is too strong, can't trade against it.
Reply
for now it looks like cup&handle on hourly - needs hourly close below midas channel from the low and EMA 622 (number of bars from the low)
snapshot
Reply
YaKa PRO piloteiat
So you are bullish Piloteiat? ok.
I think until yellen it is going to be volatility only... many hours to go and the hourly vol is just huge right now.
Reply
just looking what charts tell me : bull signal above 9605 and bear below 9447
snapshot
Reply
YaKa PRO piloteiat
Yes. Sound Trading Plan, in the flow of things. Agree.
Reply
Mickette piloteiat
CUP: completed. Handle: run to 50% extension (9700)
AB-CD upmove: target 9700 (2014 average support level)
By 9700 approx. is the red down running main line on my charts
Reply
YaKa PRO Mickette
I think 8800 end of week.. Our spread is just 1000pts... I would stop just above your target though..
lets leave it a few days now.
Reply
look4edge Mickette
may you have a look at the chart as harmonic analyst, pls. i have found harmonic? pattern, which does not qualify for 5-0 nor cypher, it is kind of hybrid of them, but retraced to 38.2 so far, btw, found same structure on spx chart as well, thx

snapshot
Reply
Mickette look4edge
That´s nothing Harmonic my trading friend :-)
Reply
Mickette look4edge
Here the one (ANTI BUTTERFLY BEAR) and its reversal target has just been completed http://www11.pic-upload.de/17.12.14/eetrrb853j3h.png
Reply
look4edge Mickette
thx. for reply, appreciate your inputs
your chart looks like from guidants/godmode-trader, doesn`t? nice site btw.
Reply
Mickette look4edge
Thanks look4edge :-)
I always look for the esthetical aspect by presenting a chart ;-)
Reply
look4edge Mickette
and this one for 5-0? little off topic but relevant as it is leading index and just fell out from wedge
snapshot
Reply
YaKa PRO look4edge
The reasonning of buying whichever way you construct it, is valid.
NOW: Let's bee clear not all buy signal work. We are still in the high 30 percentile.
The chart below shows that the same dynamic occurred and led higher earlier in the year. I just think this wont reproduce... Both scenario coexist.
Here, it is binary. One way or the other. You believe or you dont. You trade or you dont. You have a good game plan or you dont.
Better trade with momentum indicator.
it trades below weekly and monthly pivots: short
but so far it trades above daily pivot: you could be right.
Time will tell.

snapshot
Reply
Today Yellen, tomorrow Putin...
Reply
Yeellen save the world.
Reply
Mickette charlie.delta.trader
As Ben also.
Reply
Mickette charlie.delta.trader
From the EW perspective + intact Bull Market trend it makes sense.
Reply
YaKa PRO Mickette
My view: the psychology is about to change. We are entering a space where intervention will be followed by failure. Like in 2008 when Hank Paulson was trying hard.
Reply
One thing to think about... ongoing capital flight from all the EMs weak currencies. Bubble in Bonds + Stocks. Russia is the present new "shock wave". Am I wrong on this?
Reply
YaKa PRO Mickette
I dont think there is a bubble in stocks yet but it does not mean they can't correct 20%.
Russia definitely is the Catalyst driving right now.. But I had the 20% correction before that.. There is something feeding through (whether tangible or not). Here it is tangible. ISIS in August was less tangible and Ebola in October was not either. Interesting enough, it totally disappeared from the news flow a week after the October low. Market and Media needs to put their hand onto something to justify/explain a move...
Reply
+ note that in the first 5 days down, Russia was not driving the move..
+ note that in the last 40usd down, Crude did not affect anything...
- All of a sudden in the last few days, HY traded badly and so Russia... So the effect of Crude was very backloaded and now it is taking the front seat.
Reply
WTI crude " taking front seat" outlook
Not really...
snapshot
Reply
" Market and Media needs to put their hand onto something to justify/explain a move..."
I agree 100% on this.
Reply
YaKa PRO Mickette
Price remain real though even if what s driving them is not... Hence the possible extended divergence with reality which does not matter because we trade something that has its own reality.
Reply
I think that the target is too far away. I agree with the fact that markets look very topy, but if I will see Dax at 8500, I will be happy to start taking profits. I don't have a position on the Dax due to contract size and commisions, but I have a position in Allianz AG which is highly correlated, and it's a perfect proxy. Keep in mind that no matter what the FED says tonight, Mr. Draghi is likely to announce QE in the next few months, probably in January. As it always happens, some smart people will know about this before it actually happens, and considering that the holiday season is coming now, I find it hard to believe that the Dax can fall that much in a couple of weeks. Anyway, I hope it goes where you say it might, and we'll both be two happy traders.
Reply
YaKa PRO vlad.adrian
Vlad,
you may be right.

however: 6month is a hell of a lot of time. Draghi, the magician, has managed to stabilise markets with words since July12.... Super smart.

1 The news of the QE is there, digested and over anticipated.
2 I am not convinced a QE would work and so is the market apparently (look at japan failed start)
3 I am not even sure he will deliver (Deposit rate being negative, it is not certain banks would participate) + rates already low anyway, what's the point...

I actually think a good correction here would be beneficial for the real economy as Yellen/Draghi could push more intervention to support the real economy and the market at the same time...
Reply
I am not fundamental analyst, but a fundamentalist I follow expects Draghi to deliver in January, that is why I said that there is not enough time. Obviously 6 months would be an awful lot.

Regarding QE working or not, it's not about the long term, because in the heat of the moment, you will have a surge in stock markets, just like the one in Japan, and I personally want to be long during that surge, if I can. Hopefully, Yellen will trash the markets tonight with a hawkish speech and that should stir up some risk aversion
Reply
YaKa PRO vlad.adrian
ok, makes sense.

Note though: Japan QE was surprise and the market was in bull posture. Here draghi may disappoint, be it just on the wording and the market could fall. over priced, over anticipated, hope is high... so can be disappointment in the price action.

I dont know, let's see and trade the days as they come.
Reply
Yes, totally agree with that. That was one of the rare cases when fundamentals preceded technicals. I am a firm believer that technicals precede fundamentals almost all the time.
Reply
http://stks.co/a1O7V
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out