DAX - intermediate term top coming up?

FX:GER30   DAX Index
It seems my previous idea of a bear trap was dead-on. The pull-back was smaller than I expected and the market then rallied strongly.

We are now approaching one last descending TL and an important overlap. I changed my count vs my previous daily counts to take into account both bear and bull options. There is no way to tell with certainty which one will play out, so there is no point to go into details, but in short, the bull option is that we have finished an a-b-c down at the 3/C lows and are now in a new wave up. Given the impulsive structure, this should be wave 1 of something (probably 5). The bear options are still on the table, several in fact, also that we are still in wave ((4)), at least until we overlap the green line at 11022..

In anycase, the current relentless rally seems to be approaching completion. We now have complete 5 waves, with an extended 5th. The character of the decline will tell us which of the options will play out and I would keep a close eye to the 200day MA to see if the market can hold it.

So currently I expect the next move to be down, once we finally peak and I am looking for signs of that.

Interesting is that the long-term projection from MCM is looking for a top this week +- a few days. And also the cycles are pointing to this week action being critical for the intermediate term.

For questions regarding the MCM analysis you can contact me anytime at

Good luck!


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