FX:GER30   DAX index of German listed shares
587 9 37
4 months ago
After Dax             built a Top, the illustrated wedge was triggered. We saw a consolidation which was Long overdue imo.
The latest downswing nearly reached the 38,2 fibo ~(10.100) from the upmove 9300- 10470. This Level (concretly: 10.022) could but need not be a potential turnaround Level (The RSI signs an oversold Situation) - perhaps the consolidation will go further down to the normal or max consolidation Levels fibo 0,5 and 62,8 --> 9884 / 9747. The probability is given as Long Dax             is trading within the illustrated latest shortterm downtrend. If this trend will break, dax             could aim the fibo-Clusters at the upside (10236/10281/10325). Here a desicion has to be made!
As Long Dax             is trading below 10325 i see a temporarily continuation of the current (shortterm) bearish momentum . Prices below 10.022 could accelerate the downswing - a first target would be 9.984 (0,5 fibo)
microstructure of the present shortterm downtrend:
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Dear followers! I Need some comments or other ideas ! I Analyse the market for YOU


Former Analysis:
Comment. was this the final overshooting today which triggeres the bearish wedge?
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Shortterm H&S?
Shortterm H&S?


Main Analysis:
DAX             reached Action Point!
DAX reached Action Point!

Dax             reached the falling trendline which is valid since 21.04.2016. For me, thats an Action Point where a desicion has to be made. An upcoming consolidation is thinkable at that Level (possible tp on the downside is - as always - the 38,2 fibo) , but not neccesary. The RSI signs further up-potential in the daily Chart - there is still a bullish momentum - every dip was bought these days.
If DAX             could beat the midterm downtrend since April, the BIG Downtrend can be aimed!
Beating this longterm downtrend means a resumption of the maitrend - a Long Lasting bullmarket since 2008.
4 months ago
Comment: Thats the way i like it :-)
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4 months ago
Comment:
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4 months ago
Comment: resistance Cluster ahead
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4 months ago
Comment: Many People asked me where to short the dax at the Moment..hmm...perhaps this is a thinkable Szenario for you permabears :-)
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4 months ago
Comment: But at the Moment, i see no signals to short it...
4 months ago
Comment: ok, without any signal i have seen, the short works :-) 55 Points in 25 minutes..that gooooooood!!!
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4 months ago
Comment: i am flat - but if i would be short like illustrated before, i would tend to adjust my Initial sl this way
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zen
4 months ago
hello MJ! good analysis. i expected this thing to at least reach 10070 though. but it seems we just made a higher low on 15 min and making an attempt on the hod which favours your argument :)
Reply
MaryJane
4 months ago
Trendbreak?
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Reply
MaryJane MaryJane
4 months ago
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+1 Reply
adelph
4 months ago
Hi! I wanted to thank you for all your analysis and frequent updates :). Good job !
Reply
MaryJane adelph
4 months ago
I am glad to hear that! i love nice Feedback :-) you are welcome - i give my best :-)
Reply
adelph
4 months ago
Hello, do you think this movement is the start of the downmove?
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MaryJane adelph
4 months ago
Hi adelph - difficult to say that at the Moment....imo, the bullish momentum is still intact as Long as Dax is trading above 10.100
+1 Reply
MaryJane MaryJane
4 months ago
the 0,5 fibo was tooo high :-9
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salarfeen MaryJane
4 months ago
Cutting my short positions at 10180

Going long at 10160 with Sl at 10090

What'd you think?
Reply
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