After Dax built a Top, the illustrated wedge was triggered. We saw a consolidation which was Long overdue imo. The latest downswing nearly reached the 38,2 fibo ~(10.100) from the upmove 9300- 10470. This Level (concretly: 10.022) could but need not be a potential turnaround Level (The RSI signs an oversold Situation) - perhaps the consolidation will go further down to the normal or max consolidation Levels fibo 0,5 and 62,8 --> 9884 / 9747. The probability is given as Long Dax is trading within the illustrated latest shortterm downtrend. If this trend will break, dax could aim the fibo-Clusters at the upside (10236/10281/10325). Here a desicion has to be made! As Long Dax is trading below 10325 i see a temporarily continuation of the current (shortterm) bearish momentum. Prices below 10.022 could accelerate the downswing - a first target would be 9.984 (0,5 fibo) microstructure of the present shortterm downtrend:
Dear followers! I Need some comments or other ideas ! I Analyse the market for YOU
Former Analysis: Comment. was this the final overshooting today which triggeres the bearish wedge?
Shortterm H&S?
Main Analysis: DAX reached Action Point! Dax reached the falling trendline which is valid since 21.04.2016. For me, thats an Action Point where a desicion has to be made. An upcoming consolidation is thinkable at that Level (possible tp on the downside is - as always - the 38,2 fibo) , but not neccesary. The RSI signs further up-potential in the daily Chart - there is still a bullish momentum - every dip was bought these days. If DAX could beat the midterm downtrend since April, the BIG Downtrend can be aimed! Beating this longterm downtrend means a resumption of the maitrend - a Long Lasting bullmarket since 2008.
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Thats the way i like it :-)
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resistance Cluster ahead
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Many People asked me where to short the dax at the Moment..hmm...perhaps this is a thinkable Szenario for you permabears :-)
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But at the Moment, i see no signals to short it...
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ok, without any signal i have seen, the short works :-) 55 Points in 25 minutes..that gooooooood!!!
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i am flat - but if i would be short like illustrated before, i would tend to adjust my Initial sl this way
Comments
adelph
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Hello, do you think this movement is the start of the downmove?
The_Cannalyst
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Hi adelph - difficult to say that at the Moment....imo, the bullish momentum is still intact as Long as Dax is trading above 10.100
The_Cannalyst
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the 0,5 fibo was tooo high :-9
salarfeen
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Cutting my short positions at 10180
Going long at 10160 with Sl at 10090
What'd you think?
adelph
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Hi! I wanted to thank you for all your analysis and frequent updates :). Good job !
The_Cannalyst
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I am glad to hear that! i love nice Feedback :-) you are welcome - i give my best :-)
The_Cannalyst
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Trendbreak?
The_Cannalyst
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The_Cannalyst
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zen5
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hello MJ! good analysis. i expected this thing to at least reach 10070 though. but it seems we just made a higher low on 15 min and making an attempt on the hod which favours your argument :)