Scenario invalidation: - if Dax closes above 12,100 again before reaching below 11,300. - if Dax closes below 10,700 once the real correction is initiated.
If DAX stays below 12,100, a correction could be under way to 11300/11,000.
After that, if bullishness persists DAX could have a strong leg to 13,000 (wave 5) that would be extreme for this year and could potentially be the top for a long time then.
Note on waves in scenario: Wave5 ~ Wave1 ~ 61.8% x Wave3 Wave4 ~ 38.2% x Wave3
In Trading (if you believe in this scenario): - Short here with stop on close at 12,100 or 12350. - Reverse at 11300/11100 with stop 10600 (using market money as cushion if leg one worked).
In this posture, something is probably about to happen. The conclusion to the scenario is probably in the next 2 weeks.
My stance: I am short through options and futures.
Comments
YaKa
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Pricing:
I remember reading an article in Aug14 when DAX was at 9000 stating that the P/E was at 13.6.
If earnings did not change, 13,000 would bring the P/E to 20 (Roughly where SP500 is currently trading).
Please verify the Earnings currently prevailing (I could not find the update).
I remember reading an article in Aug14 when DAX was at 9000 stating that the P/E was at 13.6.
If earnings did not change, 13,000 would bring the P/E to 20 (Roughly where SP500 is currently trading).
Please verify the Earnings currently prevailing (I could not find the update).