DAX - Deeper Correction Than Expected.

FX:GER30   DAX Index
568 7 9

If SPX             is a jumbo jet, DAX             is a fighter jet.

Can go faster but is subject to larger "air pockets".

Before the correction started, when it was still unclear if it was going to let go, I calibrated the likely correction on the expected move in SPX             (which are generally of about 10%).

But a simple analysis shows that large degree corrections on the DAX             are more often in the 15%.

Here, add:
- The move up from oct14 was 48% (rather quick).
- The market wanted to catch up with move and is probably loaded at uncomfortable levels.
- 10,500 would be roughly 61% of the move from Dec14 and 50% of the move from Oct14.
- The US did not start their correction - It is rather likely they will correct 10% without completing their last potential move (Absurd Reasoning Reverse Engineering). If the EU/US correction is in sync from here, that would bring DAX             close to the 10,500.

There are many scenarios, this is one is an extreme one, a possible one that is in line with past behaviors.

Wave 5 over ...it looks for the time being.....
+1 Reply
ossfi AnbHfund
if you can correlate the down side at 2012 around 6000 with the other down in late 2014 at 8000s with a trend then that would make more sense, but the fact that you are saying it may go till 8200 as the late last year won't happen, it should go back to rise around 9000s maximeum then for the high it would reach 15000 after 2018 :)
look4edge AnbHfund
i am not sure w5 of W3 is over, actually it could be also w5.1 as well...

do you know an ETF short of Dax? Thanks in advance
I think you are too late boss. risk of whipsaw is too high... it is oversold... these type of trades need to be taken high when uncertain... when it becomes obvious, it is tempting but is actually very dangerous... do as pleased but better be informed.
yalo YaKa
Thanks , I know is too late. Only to know. Thanks again
Dax -15% (to 10550) very likely after +40% in 5 months
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