FX:GER30 DAX index of German listed shares
If SPX is a jumbo jet, DAX is a fighter jet.
Can go faster but is subject to larger "air pockets".
Before the correction started, when it was still unclear if it was going to let go, I calibrated the likely correction on the expected move in SPX (which are generally of about 10%).
But a simple analysis shows that large degree corrections on the DAX are more often in the 15%.
- The move up from oct14 was 48% (rather quick).
- The market wanted to catch up with move and is probably loaded at uncomfortable levels.
- 10,500 would be roughly 61% of the move from Dec14 and 50% of the move from Oct14.
- The US did not start their correction - It is rather likely they will correct 10% without completing their last potential move (Absurd Reasoning Reverse Engineering). If the EU/US correction is in sync from here, that would bring DAX close to the 10,500.
There are many scenarios, this is one is an extreme one, a possible one that is in line with past behaviors.
if you can correlate the down side at 2012 around 6000 with the other down in late 2014 at 8000s with a trend then that would make more sense, but the fact that you are saying it may go till 8200 as the late last year won't happen, it should go back to rise around 9000s maximeum then for the high it would reach 15000 after 2018 :)