The BEAR is back 3

FX:GER30   DAX Index
So far so good. The bear market rally I was warning about was quite vicious and went up about 1000 points in 3 days. It peaked just shy of the 50% retrace (high was around 10.380) before reversing today.

The big question now is: is the 4th wave already in? That is difficult to assess, since the current bounce didn't stop at a specific Fib level and the structure of the waves is not very straight forward (which is normal considering a 4th wave). So far on the hourly it looks like a double 3, but it could subdivide again into a triple 3, albeit those are rare.

Time will tell, but I for one hope for another bounce to test better the "classic" Fib retracements. Perfect world would be a bounce to where the 61,8% retrace meets the lower sloping blue trendline . It doesn't mean we'll get there, but if we do, that would be a fantastic short, in my opinion.

In this period of uncertainty, I find it useful to try to integrate also other approaches, besides elliot wave , in order to gain more clarity. The guys at mcm are doing a fantastic job with the statistical projections. I found the one on the dax             especially insightful. Check out this article and the dax             projection:
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