The Alternative szenario of my former Analysis seems to be the sucessful one - the requirement for this alternative Szenario is a market below 9.720 -deciding is the Close price today. When Dax drops through the last valid "2" (red 1-2-3 counting), the next downwave can be exspected. The Signal is a very strong signal because it is supported of the SMA200 (used as a longterm sell trigger) which also is based at the same Level.
Former analysis:
The Index has reached the bottom edge of its midterm uptrend since 11.02.2016. At this niveau some buyers joined in the game and the result is, that the index closed 3 days in a row positive. The shortterm downtrend (10.470-9.730) is still dominant. The Chart will brighten with Prices above 10.200 (above the maximum correction Level, the 61,8 fibo-retracement @ 10.200) Here is also based the SMA 200 as a longterm buying Trigger. If the market could Close above this SMA , i exspect a further upmove to 10.490.On this way up, several resistance zones appear: The fibo retracements 38,2= 10.000 / 0,5 fibo = 10.110/ 61,8% = 10.200. Should this Szenario get real we perhaps could see a nice 1-2-3 long-setup these days. The reqirement for this Long Setup is, that the index has to Close sustainable above it s 61,8 fibo @ 10.200 and has to cross the last valid "2". Alternative Szenario: Stoppsell below the last Low at 9.730 with SL @ 10.000 and TP1=9400 / TP2=8800
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