I added a new forecast onto the old commentary of GG from this past fall when I pointed out that GG is a trading stock and not a stock to buy and hold. So far the recent selloff has started the snowball rolling down the mountain from my perspective. I could see a slow, grinding decline through until summer. The "point of maximum optimism" is a price pattern that creates a lot of new highs in the shorter term, but as you can see, failed to make an all-time new high. So, what this pattern does is set-up the bulls to just hold onto their shares as the price slowly declines. I will look to enter shorts up another dollar and risk 3 times the average daily range. Cheers. Technical Tim, Mon, Mar 5, 2012 3:14PM EST $47.74 last.
Comments
lercarto
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Agreed.
charttrader
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Very close...
olegm2
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bah, wish i saw this earlier, but I just bought it at 44.25 going, long
timwest
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I would be lying if I didn't admit that I felt the same way many times - but I use that "bah, wish..." energy to help me focus on where opportunities are setting up and where the strong opinions are. I love strong opinions in the market, if only for waiting for when the time comes that those strong opinions don't lead to further market action in the direction of that opinion. As for the gold stocks, keep an eye on the financial stocks as I believe that as long as those are moving up that people will continue to pull money out of "safe-haven" investments like gold-mining stocks. I really can't believe how little money these gold mines earn but people don't seem to be looking at fundamentals, rather they look for exposure to asset classes. Sorry for the diatribe, but hope there is a nugget of value in these comments for you. Cheers. Tim
olegm2
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Yea, thnx. I did hold financials and just recently cut my positions down to size, held BAC from 5 to 9.80, thus i felt it ran too much and will eventually come back down for another entry. but that UVXY stock has been kicking my butt, so as a play on that i did pick GG just to diversify. I was thinking GG might hit $46 and $50 sometime in the future., but i truly need an alternative to UVXY, it keeps dropping 10% every day :(
timwest
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Nice call on GG getting up to $46. It looks like a decent entry on the short side up here if you hit "make it live" or "add more bars" on this chart of GG. Cheers. Tim 2:18PM EST 3/27/12
olegm2
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yep, just got out of GG at 45.8, and GLD, just held them 2 days., and finally sold uvxy to get rid of the pain. not going to touch ultra shorts ever again, they suc. looking at AU now, waiting for the next buy signal
timwest
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GG is down to 44.38 today and this forecast is coming along very nicely. I believe it is wise to cover and stand aside for another entry on the short-side. I am going to leave the long side alone from this level. I think this down move is the beginning of a much longer and deeper slide in the price of mining shares as a result of many factors. Perhaps I can address those issues over the weekend in more depth when I can devote more time to making a full argument in favor of exiting "safe-haven" trades. Cheers and hope some of you did well on this trade too! Tim 1:59PM EST, Fri, Mar 16, 2012
charttrader
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Very good Tim. Please post more analysis on this when you have a time.
timwest
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Thanks chart trader. It looks like GG is still on its grinding path down... Big down day today... puts it right into the path of that guess from before. Perhaps a bounce, but GLD is setting up for a massive decline from the way I make charts. Tomorrow will set-up a sell signal which I will post if it actually triggers. Note TLT's decline, another safe-haven, on the FOMC minutes.