AdrianRaymondFX
Long

Watch for the Bund to bottom around 148.50

EUREX:GG1!   Euro Bund
The sharp rise in sovereign yields in Europe has taken a lot of people by surprise, and the sentiment in the market is more and more bearish as people are starting to believe Bill Gross's "short of a century" statement made two months ago. We should all be asking ourselves if it's reasonable to expect yields to keep rising over the long term as the ECB will clearly continue buying up excess supply for the next 15 months. If you think this is the case, then you must believe that the euro             will head back above $1.20 during the second half of the year (this isn't necessarily out of the question given the risk with Fed rate forecasts). Whatever you may think on a fundamental basis, you should be watching the Bund's long-term bullish trend line closely in the days ahead. This support comes in at around 148.50, which is the 50% retracement level from the 2013 lows to this year's highs. Any daily candlestick indicating a bullish reversal after having tested this support would make me want to attempt a long strategy. I'd like to see the EUR/USD             hit $1.145-1.15 with the Bund             at support to have the best timing possible on such a strategy.
I'd leave some exposition to the upside just in case prices break above 152 next week.
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The Bund is failing below 152 today. Probably good idea to start booking profits.
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Wow Adrian. Wish I would have read your post last week instead of today after the big move in Bund and U.S. Bonds.
Do you expect a pullback tomorrow?
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Hi CariB, if the Bund is to reach 152 like I suspect, any pullback needs to be small and limited in time.
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The trend line was hit yesterday, and the initial reaction suggests a potentiel for the Bund to rebound starting today.
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