I Gold heading below 1070? Support and trend breaks.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/OsBXckpZ/
%R, Hull MACD, EFI (backcolor on macd, darker red negative slope)and Volume Price Change 2, 11, 3 agree sustained negative pressure. This all agrees with support and trend breaks. Will see how it looks at open in the morning, now Aug. 18 Bear vertical buying 117 and selling 114 puts (1 ea. max profit/loss ~ 150/150) looks good = with more extrinsic in the short leg set up to .15 positive Theta and would close at anything over ~70 gain. Gold usually gaps overnight though so needs new look tomorrow morning.
Indicators? Top Williams %R 21 with ema 13 of the %R. Middle is Hull MACD with backcolor set by Elder Force Index (std ema 13) green above and red below zero the green is dark if sloping more positive and the red is dark if sloping more negative. Bottom is RicardoSanto's Volume Price Change, experimental which I find gives inklings of reversal and ranging with inputs I use and I take the signal (red/green) to lineweight 2.
All of this being said about expectations my bets are always calculated knowing no one knows what the price is going to do. Good luck and Keep Smiling!
%R, Hull MACD, EFI (backcolor on macd, darker red negative slope)and Volume Price Change 2, 11, 3 agree sustained negative pressure. This all agrees with support and trend breaks. Will see how it looks at open in the morning, now Aug. 18 Bear vertical buying 117 and selling 114 puts (1 ea. max profit/loss ~ 150/150) looks good = with more extrinsic in the short leg set up to .15 positive Theta and would close at anything over ~70 gain. Gold usually gaps overnight though so needs new look tomorrow morning.
Indicators? Top Williams %R 21 with ema 13 of the %R. Middle is Hull MACD with backcolor set by Elder Force Index (std ema 13) green above and red below zero the green is dark if sloping more positive and the red is dark if sloping more negative. Bottom is RicardoSanto's Volume Price Change, experimental which I find gives inklings of reversal and ranging with inputs I use and I take the signal (red/green) to lineweight 2.
All of this being said about expectations my bets are always calculated knowing no one knows what the price is going to do. Good luck and Keep Smiling!
Comment:
To clarify the trade above is on the ETF, GLD, which usually gaps between sessions.
Comment:
Went short with Bear Put spread Aug 18 short 116 put long 114 put debit 1.00 ($100) Theta 0.09 (Even though a debit the Theta positive decay as extrinsic of the short is greater than the long leg) Delta -19 (traction equiv to 19 shares). With down move the volatility should increase which would increase the price (sell back up, profit up). Max risk $100 the position defines the loss so no stops. Plan to close at around $50 profit to recycle funds and minimize risk exposure. Probability of this is about %65.
To avoid pattern day trade will set closing order tomorrow.
To avoid pattern day trade will set closing order tomorrow.
Comment:
At top line above, the letters E F and I together got translated as a stock, It was intended to be an abbreviation for Elder Force Index. This Force index is what is used to shade the background of the Hull MACD - green bull dark green more, red bear dark red more.
Trade closed manually:
Am more used to volatility trades and with the news this dirctional trade feels shaky. Exited down $28 (net 30.58 after all comm. and fees) this morning. Not surprising GLD so controversial much says bear but the current bump feels more and more inflation related which is traditionally bullish. Either way we will see it play out. Keep smiling!