Bearish Signal Confirmed ... Defining Bearish Targets | $GLD

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This 4-hour chart has moved significantly to new structural lows, carving lower-lows and lower highs. It also tripped my prop system to emit a market bearish reversal confirmation, and since moved to a relief lower high.

I would surmise here that the large impulse borne out of the beginning of the year (i.e.: precisely, 114.46 on Dec 31th 2013 to 133.69 on MAR 14, 2014) may represent an Elliott Wave-3 impulse, and the ensuing decline a possible Elliott Wave-4 retrenchment. If so, then a potential Wave-4 Triangle may be underway, although this remains highly speculative. However, this is noteworthy, since it points towards the primary support which my prop system was able to define.

The targets are as follows:

1 - TG-1 = 119.93 - 27 APR             2014, moderate probability
2 - TG-2 = 116.76 - 27 APR             2014, moderate probability
3 - TGLo             = 115.49 - 27 APR             2014, low probability

Values also worth keeping in mind to appease some directional confidence are based on potential directional scenarios:

An overhead resistance awaits bulls in a narrow 127.09/127.63 range - A break of the first line should concern bears. In any case, bears are likely to send price back down from within that one, yet a BACA event ("Break Above, Close Above") the 128.25 level should cause the most entrenched bearish trader to pull his boots our of the blood muck.

A decline to the primary target @ 119.93 is rated as "moderate probability (i.e.: in YELLOW), simply because despite a system confirmation of bears, a bullish scenario remains in force and probable, up to the levels defined above. So, i would let the market exhale a bit from its recent bearish foray. As Pint B sits at 50% of the relief rally, I would wait for a new lower low to carve out before resting comfortable with a bearish scenario. And if and once this occurs, then consider the secondary bearish target @ 116.76 to also gain added validity.

Abysmal to all is a 115.49, which is NOT the product of my system, but sits down in the recess of dubiety.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting

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David Alcindor
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Very very nice predictions David. I am thinking to put a buy order at about your target low. Thought you might revisit this idea. Kindly- Hamed
+1 Reply
4xForecaster HamedAghajani
Hello @HamedAghajani - Thank you for noticing. I will wait for price to reach TG-Lo before adding any new comment. Looks like it's getting there soon - David
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie 4xForecaster
Dead on hit...a ton of gaps, interesting chart.
Good chart! Spot on the direction there!
+1 Reply
12 MAY 2014 - Chart Update:

As indicated in the chart replay, the first impulse move defined by the dashed blue arrow did follow-through, but a significant reactive relief rally occurred.

Yet, this rally did nothing to alter the predictive analysis and forecast defined earlier - All targets remain in force, and the model-based directional bias remains intact as well.


David Alcindor
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