clingwrappingsheets
Short

More reasons to fall than rise

AMEX:GLD   SPDR GOLD TRUST GOLD SHARES NPV
(Note turquoise indicators this time)

Resistance levels
1. from 124.76 to 125.08 indicates a potential slowdown upon hitting that level.
2. Another more recent gap at 125.48
3. and the Fibb level at 125.77 indicates multiple slowdown regions
4. not to mention top boundary of the declining channel

What are the signs of continued upward movement?
1. The strong momentum up, just look at the indicators

The doji after the gap does indicate an uncertainty. Almost an apprehension, second guessing - "should I have jumped up too far up in the last move? hrmm...

Timing:
Wait for a 20 bar upmove, currently, we are at bar 13.
Why 20? the upmoves have averaged about 20 - 24 bars, so i'm hoping the pattern remains. there's no other basis apart from this and yes, it does seem very arbitrary but frankly im trying this out.

So what are the possible moves we can make here? The main question is whether this upmove will continue or will it fall. Well we are currently in a larger consolidation pattern from a downtrend (see monthly chart). The would be more inclination to keep on the trend that this consolidation still has a bearish slant. THe uncertainty form the doji and the resistance levels also compels me to say that the upmove will slow down.

What trades can we make? This movement could go either ways, but I think I will buy a puts at around 124.50, the little space beyond the channel and the supply zone , at the market (if it happens to reach the level) but will only do so after bar 16. Currently we are at 13. So I will await to initiate short!

Short price: 124.50
Stoploss level: 126.50
TP: 120.1 (potential support + pitchfork channel)

Lets see.
I am concerned that for fundamental reasons, most expect gold to rise, but hey, we are looking at the short term, at most, the next 25 bars. In the long-long run, i do agree to long gold .
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