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# Model Sees 86.37 | #gold \$XAU \$NUGT \$JNUG \$AUD \$CHF #elliottwave

AMEX:GLD   SPDR GOLD SHARES
2965 25
Friends,

With recent news of \$GLD from Stan             Druckenmiller positioning, I decided to pass the ETF through the Predictive/Forecasting Model and other technical screening combs:

PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

The "Model" suggests a higher-probability decline with the following targets:

1 - TG-Lo = 97.65 - 17 AUG 2015

and

2 - TG-Lox = 86.37 - 17 AUG 2015

Whereas, the "Watch Line = 71.30 - 17 AUG 2015" represents a timeframe conversion threshold (typically a four-fold conversion from current to higher - e.g.: M15 to H1, H1 to H4, H4 to daily, ... Weekly to Monthly).

OCCULT GEOMETRIES:

1 - NODULAR CORE
There is a high-probability resistance imposing at/near the 110.91, corresponding to a Nodule that formed over a prior historical bullish swing. This respite carved out a "nodule", whose core (i.e.: 50%) is offering a high-probability support-to-resistance level, herein defined at (119.54 + 102.28)/2 = 50% = 110.91.

2 - GEO:
The Geo             is an elaboration of the Wolfe Wave , using internal geometric             correspondence and rules, such that Leg 1-2 represents a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, Leg 2-3 a complex Elliott Wave TZZ, and Leg 4-5 a simple Elliott Wave ZZ, which is how the Geo             defined itself - In contrast, I have left an outline of Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave outline in faint blue, defined by the core 5-point plot and its 1-4 Target Line.

The Geo             is an important market geometry element, as it defines a high-probability target if and once price reverses from Point-5' or Point-5'', thus defining levels of Point-4 and Point-3 respectively as their assigned high-probability targets.

ELLIOTT WAVE ("EW"):

As we consider the possibility of further decline based on the Predictive/Forecasting Model, we may consider what the mechanism of decline might utilize as a technical vehicle. Here, I assume that a bearish impulse is pending, with internal compensations ("EW's Rules of Alternations") that justifies the Geo             development, as simplicity of Wave-2 comes balanced by the complexity of Wave-4. Hence, one might consider that further downside consideration is justified at this time.

OVERALL: Bearish outlook based on the foreground assertion of the Predictive/Forecasting Model. A temporizing rally might occur, as drawn by the speculative dashed arrows, but bears remain in charge.

Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA

-----
@4xForecaster

David Alcindor
-----

.
Comment: 03 NOV 2015 - Following is merely a cut/paste of the "Chart Update" and "Tech-Note" commentaries I had initially introduced in the "Post COmment" section. I will cut/paste then in the "Update Status", so as to keep it into clean, visible, and easily retrievable chronological order:

==============================
20 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

----------
\$GLD rallied to higher-prob. ND as forecast; Nears bearish entrenchment at 110.91:

#gold \$XAU #euro \$AUD \$CHF \$CAD
----------
David Alcindor

25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

----------
\$GLD stomped at forecast ND level - Coming: Preliminary construction of WW vs. Geo:

#gold \$XAUUSD #xau \$AUD \$CHF
----------
David Alcindor

\$GLD reversed from occult geometry level as forecast; Bearish targets subsist in fading probability:

David Alcindor
=============================

David
Comment: 03 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price has retraced off of the Nodular Core value of 110.91 - Expect further downside. Bearish targets remain intact and in force:

David Alcindor
Comment: 08 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

I was waiting for added confirmation before adding any new technical note - Basically, at this point, it will be a make or break, based on the two following charts:

1 - \$XAU - Daily chart:

In the first chart, price continues to rally per forecast, although the interim action did take an excursive detour. Still, price is back to where it was forecast, and I expect that the 1,268.78 from last Spring's 2015 target gets hit:

2 - \$GLD - Weekly Chart;
In this second chart, the view is broader, and price highlights a significant resistance against the geometry's 2-4 Line, after price followed the dashed arrow forecast quite tightly. While this \$GLD plays out in its large timeframe, a divergence could occur in the \$XAU, posted above, heralding the reversal expected at these levels (i.e.: At the Qual-Target in the daily \$XAU and the geometry's imposition in the weekly \$GLD):

OVERALL:
Price is likely to have reached a significant resistance, and probably a reversal level. A contradiction to this reversal scenario would occur in \$GLD if price converts the 2-4 Line from resistance to support.

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 22 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Today, I have updated the WEEKLY chart by cleaning up and revising the wave counts and probable internal patterns:

As of today (22 JUN 2016), watch for a limited upward adverse excursion, as price draw out an expanding triangle, internal of wave-c to the presumed a-b-c correction of Wave-IV.

Predictive/Forecasting Model calls for a probable resistance at the 126.95 level, corresponding to a probable completion of the 5-point expanding pattern.

In any case, the BEARISH forecast which was defined almost a year ago (17 AUG 2015) remains intact and in force, with the series of bearish targets as follows:

- TG-Lo = 97.65 - 17 AUG 2015
- TG-Lox = 86.37 - 17 AUG 2015
- Watch Line = 71.30 - 17 AUG 2015

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 28 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price hit overhead quantitative target, TG-1 = 126.95, defined this past 22 JUN 2016 - However, a large decline is anticipated, with abysmal targets defined nearly a year ago (17 AUG 2015), remaining unanswered.

Overall forecast remains bearish:

David Alcindor, CMT #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 12 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price capitulates at the completion of a discreet A-B-C-D-E geometry, now resting at the recently hit 126.96 target. Original forecast defined on 17 AUG 2015 remains intact and appears to now come in force:

As indicated in the most recent update, the abysmal target at 97.65, 86.37 and 71.30 should now become topic of concerns for the bull-horned market gawker.

Regards,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
Comment: 20 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

\$GLD continues to retreat from recent JUN target at 126.95, whereas last AUG 2015 targets at 97, 86 and 71 remain intact and in force:

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
Thanks for this David. Always appreciate your analysis
I have a slightly different count - curious what you think.
Nathanael
Hello @Ronald_Bringer - Yes, I can see how the count might differ. Between your points III and IV, the pattern in your chart just below outlines a symmetrical triangular correction - In its purest form, it would be defined by points A, B, C, D and E with internal a-b-c connecting each of these points. However, review of these internal connections do not appear as consistent between each of the A-E plots:

In contrast, I have considered EW's TZZ with its internal W, X, Y, XX, Z plots, where W-X connection are typically simpler in format (i.e.: simple ZZ) than say, the Y-XX connection, although this is very much debatable in any other given situation.

In any case, the structure of the entire bearish impulse, along with its compensatory system of "Rule of Alternations" is what I was getting after, as a point that a corrective delay is nearing its term, and that a NET decline (albeit a possible interim, but limited upside at the defined level) is highly probable, given the Model's directional bias as the foreground analytical feature, and the technical support defined above as background events.

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
Appreciate your work David, thanks for the input!
Nathanael
@Ronald_Bringer - Thank you for your question and feedback. Feel free to offer any sort of other feedback, as I am not an expert in Elliott Wave by any measure.

Again, thank you for your input.

David
Nathanael
Thank u @Ronald. Looks like thats about to play out. Do u have and charting for silver?
Sokun
No confirmation on gold yet, but yes, its looking bullish.
I have not yet charted silver, Ill look into it.
Nathanael
Cool. Thank u @Ronald
Nathanael
Still waiting for confirmation? Will it hit your b target soon?
From this review wouldnt one think that xau and xag will follow?
Sokun
@Sokun - The correlation is very high, so yes. But watch for corrective price pathways in the mean time. A rally to a higher Point-4 is not excluded, but the net expectation remains bearish in the longer-term frame.

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
So another little leg down then up to your tghi1268 @david
Thank you @ronald so it should go down a little more right about this week then rally to you upper number?
20 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

----------
\$GLD rallied to higher-prob. ND as forecast; Nears bearish entrenchment at 110.91:

#gold \$XAU #euro \$AUD \$CHF \$CAD
----------

David Alcindor
25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

----------
\$GLD stomped at forecast ND level - Coming: Preliminary construction of WW vs. Geo:

#gold \$XAUUSD #xau \$AUD \$CHF
----------

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
Any new comments on xag?

\$GLD reversed from occult geometry level as forecast; Bearish targets subsist in fading probability:

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
Hi David,

Given the recent excitement on gold, any more thoughts on its path? The price is still confined to your weekly channel above. Maybe it has a little higher to go and then resume its downtrend?
millie
Hello @millie - I was waiting for added confirmation before replying to your query - Basically, at this point, it will be a make or break, based on the two following charts:

1 - \$XAU - Daily chart:

In the first chart, price continues to rally per forecast, although the interim action did take an excursive detour. Still, price is back to where it was forecast, and I expect that the 1,268.78 from last Spring's 2015 target gets hit:

2 - \$GLD - Weekly Chart;
In this second chart, the view is broader, and price highlights a significant resistance against the geometry's 2-4 Line, after price followed the dashed arrow forecast quite tightly. While this \$GLD plays out in its large timeframe, a divergence could occur in the \$XAU, posted above, heralding the reversal expected at these levels (i.e.: At the Qual-Target in the daily \$XAU and the geometry's imposition in the weekly \$GLD):

OVERALL:
Price is likely to have reached a significant resistance, and probably a reversal level. A contradiction to this reversal scenario would occur in \$GLD if price converts the 2-4 Line from resistance to support.

Best,

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
Hi David,

The target for XAUUSD at 1268 is remarkable! There was immediate reaction on that number. Does the model see a retracement from here? As always, many thanks for your input.
Thank you for the update David. Do you also foresee a reversal as to \$XAU as you noted above?

eYou
Hello @eyou - Watch out for a possible excursion to the 1370.87 level. However, bears remain in charge overall - David
4xForecaster
Hi Would a jump to 1370 change your chart to a bullish revision? Thanks
muskie32
Hello @muskie32 - That level represents an adverse excursion risk, but not a target per se - I price rises to that level and continues on up, then YES the bearish forecast would require serious revision

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
Hi David. So far your forecast has been spot on. When would you update your chart, only after a significant move?
muskie32
Thank you @muskie32 - So far, no change in the forecast.

Regards,

David Alcindor
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