Gold has been getting hammered in recent weeks. But now could be the time for GLD to get off the mat.
The big glaring point is a three pointed bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart. Other indicators are also oversold, and have the whole road available to travel.
Also, previous behavior in GLD is that it often forms these V-bottom patterns when it reverses...and often times 50% (or much more) of the move retraces in the subsequent days-weeks.
As such, I'm taking GLD here. Currently at $144.33... $121 is my first target, and I believe it would get there before the end of September.
Travis JMJ - IUOGD
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That RSI divergence failed spectacularly...however it revealed an interesting fibonacci repeat from 2016... check it out
Its been in a downtrend for years now. Geopolitical issues are the only thing that give Gold a temporary boost. Long term I think we can see 700 gold.
nvlightning
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Good analysis, but it did break a Monthly and Weakly trend line that started in 2005 which is alarming. I don"t see it going to the 100 zone again but I think there may be a gap down here soon and then closing high leaving a nice tail behind signaling the next up trend.
Procinctu
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@nvlightning, thanks for pointing that out... as I was looking at that on the weekly chart, i made note of previous RSI oversold levels, and how GLD behaved. The last extreme, at the low in December 2016, the RSI rate of decrease slowed considerably, to signal the reversal. This similarly happened in June 2013. And the reversal happened the following week. Of course, we don't KNOW how exactly it will go, BUT if this time copies the last two extreme RSI oversold readings, then GLD weekly RSI can finish about where it is now, and start quickly reversing next week.
After we see the close tomorrow, I'll post what I'm seeing as an official comment on the idea, or make a new idea altogether... thanks!
Procinctu
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@nvlightning, is that your gap down today? Let's see the closing high!
nvlightning
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The gap down did occur but it didn"t pull back up leaving a long tail with a small body indicating a bull reversal.
Procinctu
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@nvlightning, wow... the move from November 2016 - December 2016 is now nearly the same length as this one... about .40 more down and it will be exact.