goodguy
Long

EWT longer term view ("guess") on Gold

AMEX:GLD   SPDR GOLD TRUST
78 0 2
As a follow up to yesterdays post on GLD             I thought some might be interested in my feeling about what may be going on in gold             longer term.
Earlier in my trading I spent a lot of time using EWT             and found it almost completely inadequate to use alone. But I still like it but just see it as a complex pattern recognition, which like all patterns frequently don't play out as we initially saw them. But in trading I use it only in conjunction with other trading tools such as trend lines , candles, Fib relationships, etc.
If you are not familiar with Elliott Wave one idea it describes are different types of triangles. These are sideways consolidations that occur most commonly in a "B" wave of a correction, or as a 4th wave in an impulse move. I "see" three contracting triangles, each of wave has 5 subwaves (not drawn). The larger are in B waves. The smaller a 4th wave. What I suspect gold             is doing is forming a very LARGE long term triangle. You can see I numbered the high in gold             so far as 33 suggesting we are now in a long term 4th wave. IFFFF correct then we likely have finished the first of the usual 5 waves of a triangle which I labeled AA. IFFFFF correct the BB may well be a .618 or .78% correction of AA.

Remember this is a lot like trying what the weather will be in the future. The longer out you predict the less certain you are. Also notice the nice down channel we have using this count. If my shorter term target proves to be correct then price will have to break out of this channel which would support we may well be starting a more bullish phase for gold             . Take care. Comments, criticism, and jokes appreciated. Goodguy.
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