$GLD Daily Close — Sep 4

GLD is my favorite one, and gold's tell is the gap. It gives the best gap setups in either direction.

Fundamentals crushed the market today and futures were falling into it. GLD closed 406.77 with a range of 4.04 against a 7.94 ATR — 51% of a normal day — and volume at 9.82M against a 12.3M average, 80% relative volume. Below average, and below the last two sessions.

Today the gap filled completely and price closed green on low volume. That's No Demand. Buyers didn't show up to take the fill, they just stopped being sold. I'll grade it soft though, because the close came in the upper third rather than right at the high, and the low at 403.96 got bought back. Neither side committed.

The bar that still matters most is last week's. Wide spread down into 395.51, closing well off the low, on the heaviest volume on this entire chart. That's Stopping Volume — selling absorbed at the lows, not selling exhausted into them. I traded that red hammer near 395. The market held the 400 psych number, gave two days up, then the big gap.

That's why 400 is the key for me now, and it's more than a round number. The MTF cloud (ripster47 EMA cloud) sits at 399–400.35, right on top of the Key Level, right on top of the psych figure. Three reasons stacked in two points. I change my bias on a 400 break.

Zoom out: GLD did very well after breaking the 382.27 downward sloping trendline and running to 430. That was the whole move.

Upside, there's heavy options flow at 420. So if price can hold and curl the 408–409 5-12 Curl (ripster47 EMA cloud), 420 comes into play. No long trigger before that.

Trigger 409.01, and I want it on volume above 12.3M. Invalidation 399.33.

Monday the US market is closed but the commodity market reopens Sunday evening. My suggestion — avoid it and enjoy the day with your families. Happy Labor Day.