Technically Speaking Gold is testing a support level going back to April. It is also the 50% retracement of the 2016 rally. The question I wonder is this a retracement in a bull market or will we see sub 100 again? What to do? Unless you are short, the R/R favors the long side, IMO. I am looking to buy b/w here and 112, stopping out under 110. I will update this post if and when I buy.
Durable good orders and UE claims are on Wednesday, otherwise I expect a quite Thanksgiving week.
Coming from just a perspective purely of technical analysis, this shows quite a clean multi-year trend (from mid 2013-beg. 2016) of consistently lower highs despite this 2016 spike so I feel there is too strong of a possibility that this crashes down back to this trend line (headed for~105 or so) for you to justify buying now.
CalebDismuke
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@redsoxman9991, Yeah, I think that is a possibility. A break under 115, would likely keep me on the sidelines. My final question I ask is always what I will regret more, passing and watching this make new highs, even if it is a low probability, or losing a small % of my account. My biggest regrets have always come on trades I pass on:)
kenny1924
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We are still at the mercy of the positive comments by Trump and of course Yellen. Both have lots to say which can take USD higher, and therefore Gold lower. Same with Oil. So, wait on sidelines is my answer, even though I am long Gold.
CalebDismuke
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@kenny1924, Yeah, the headline risk coming over the next few months as the new admin is installed could be brutal. I remember the Euro crises all too well. One random comment from a finance minister could move the euro 200-300 pips in minutes.
kenny1924
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@CalebDismuke, yeah for now mate, lets be careful since Trump does not know 'impacts' of his words. So, you take the experience you have had, and now we have a To-Be-President that will move markets in the morning based on his Twitter rants, and it is going to create 'wicks' in the markets like one has never seen before. We already saw one in the Nasdaq 2 weeks ago. I have never seen a candle in QQQ (NDX) that long EVER in my 25 years of being in the markets except for 1987, 1991, 2001 and 2008. And, this was a non-event day 2 weeks ago (not on election day before a few days after, I believe).