DanV
Short

GMCR- SHORT BIAS AS IT COULD SLIDE IT'S WAY DOWN INTO THE VALLEY

NASDAQ:GMCR   KEURIG GREEN MTN INC
Purely Technical Outlook:

Based on the price data going back to 1994 if that was the IPO             of the company, then it has rising to 2014 high in clear 5 wave impulsive move and could now be making a major retracement of the entire rise.

Not particularly sure of the fundamental of the company but its price weakness could be compounded by wider market weakness and it seems to have started the race early by making its top in Nov 2014 where as the market is possibly forming one now.

If correct the then based on EW principle retracement could make it to wave 4 of one lesser degree which brings it into vicinity of 17- 20 area which would be 88.6% retracement of the entire rise. Whilst at the same time if the intermediate support around 55 holds then any bounce back to 90 area form classic bearish H&S .

Summary of Technicals:

1. Completed major 5 impulsive move to form the top in Nov 2014
2. Clear RSI divergence with price between wave 3 high and wave 5 high.
3. Currently in Wave 3 of 3 which is normally very strong aqnd dynamic (see Snapshot of daily time frame below0
4. Normal retracement would be in the vicinity of wave 4 low of one lesser degree in the area of $17 -$20
5. That would line up with 88.6% retracement which would not be uncommon for many high flying stock .
6. This decline from Nov 2014 high appears to be leading the wider Market which could be in a process of forming significant top now. If correct then already weak stock such as this one could be adversely affected.

Please Note:
The schematic price path shown on the chart is only an outline of anticipated directional move and not necessarily the exact highs and lows.

This is a very long term play and it would be absolutely normal for retracement along the way and sharp bounce would not necessarily alter the overall price path anticipated. This would offer shorter term swing trades in both direction.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share it for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Daily time frame chart referred above
snapshot
+2 Reply
Very clear count Dan!
+2 Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Thanks Mate. Appreciate it
+2 Reply
Elliott Moore DanV
2 years ago
Hi Dan, do you post Forex ideas also?
Reply
DanV MOD Elliott Moore
2 years ago
Yes indeed I do. Just check my profile page. I have just published NZDUSD couple of days ago.
+2 Reply
A very nice chart !
+1 Reply
Same view here.
Thanks for your chart.
+1 Reply
DanV MOD ew-forecast
2 years ago
You are welcome.
Reply
huntingsniper
a year ago
Good call! Your prediction using EW is amazing. I like your posts and want to learn the technique, could you recommend some books to start? Keep up the good work!
Reply
DanV MOD huntingsniper
a year ago
Thank you for your compliment.

Regarding resource for learning EW, try free membership with Elliott Wave International. They have basic tutorial under free membership. Occasionally they also make their advance tutorial available too.

It will give you basic knowledge to get started.
Reply
huntingsniper DanV
a year ago
Thank you so much! I registered few months ago and went through their basic tutorials. Feel better about understanding price move and structure, but still not so sure when dealing with real market, for instance, I am not quite sure about my EW counts for NGAS. Should it be like this
snapshot

or should it look like this ? I think I am still missing some critical points about this technique. Thanks.
snapshot
Reply
DanV MOD huntingsniper
a year ago
Lots of practice will help but agree It is not always easy I admit, specially at the right edge of the chart.

I approach it with EW and overlay with other traditional technical analysis where it helps to clarify.

Your second chart above looks more like what I see. Here is my chart and suggest that it could be forming a base for potential reversal or normal retracement of say 38.6% or even 50%.
snapshot
Reply
huntingsniper DanV
a year ago
Your chart is inspiring! Thank you so much! Following the way you identified the b wave and considering the price actions of last Friday and today, I constructed the b wave and seems like it breaks the b wave triangle to the downside.
snapshot
Reply
DanV MOD huntingsniper
a year ago
Looks good. Hopefully if this is correct we should see this complete before larger wave (c) to the upside could develop.
Reply
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