It was a beautiful, clear, blue-skied, sunny day here in SoCal. I've had a wonderfully relaxing stroll on the beach with my Vizslas, and am now ready to buckle-down and prep for another week of hedgie fookery.
Here's the current state of play on our beloved stonk for the day and week ending Friday 04/16 (aka DFV day ... he exercised everything):
As you can see, I subscribe to Elliott Wave Theory in which there are motive waves and corrective waves. As the state of play stands, we are in the **takes deep breathe** the 2nd Minor (blue 2) leg of the 3rd Intermediate (yellow (3)) leg of the 3rd Primary (green 3) leg of the 5th leg of a Cycle (orange V)
Why completely expirate my lungs inducing a transcendental state??
Because it is significant. It is destiny calling, my apes. We could not be at a more precipitous moment in history. Remember, motive drives price UP (YEAH!) and corrective is price DOWN (BOO!).
The 5th wave is the final motive wave of a cycle; after that it's driving force is corrective (think 2008.) Moreover, the 3rd wave is the LARGEST/LONGEST of the three motive waves (1, 3, 5) and we are in the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd. Can you say exponential??
Okay, now that I've mapped out the battlefield, what can we expect in the days/weeks/months to come. Let's zoom in and take a looksie, shall we?
Here's the 5D,5m chart:
Let's get closer, the 2D,5m chart: So, lots of colors, make ape happy? Good. Ape happy, ape listen.
Those subdued blue and brown bands are post- and pre-market, respectively. The lines are support (green) and resistance (red) areas. The red and green angle lines are pre-mapped Elliott waves. Finally, note the white (circled A-B-C) added.
Now, I can hear you babooning, "Get on with it already. When ape moon?"
Housekeeping first...
So, our first requirement is to close-out the 2nd minor leg so that we may begin the 3rd leg of the minor motive wave. To do that, we needed to exceed the previous day low of $152.80. Fortunately, that happened earlier in the day at $151.25 (20210416:0955EST). And, at that point, we closed out the C-leg (circled white C) of the corrective pattern that makes up the 2nd Minor (blue 2) leg that began at 20210414:1130EST. So, I believe THAT was the end of the correction and we are now on our way.
Ohh, tendies! Are we there yet?? No. Don't make me come back there, it's just a rest-stop along the way, my ape.
We are here (yellow arrow): (That green minor wave below the yellow arrow is what we'll be working with.)
Now, let's map out the next motive wave, shall we?
Some rules first, though: 1. Wave2 is 50%, 61.8%, 76.4%, or 85.4% of Wave1 2. Wave3 is 161.8%, 200%, 261.8%, or 323.6% of Wave1 3. Wave4 is 14.6%, 23.6%, or 38.2% of Wave3 but no more than 50% 4. Wave5 has three possibilities: ⦁ First, Wave5 is inverse 123.6 – 161.8% retracement of Wave4. ⦁ Second, Wave5 is equal to wave 1. ⦁ Third, Wave5 is 61.8% of wave 1-3
To identify the first wave, we have to wait for the first pullback of at least 50% of what it advanced ($8.95) and begin identifying the 2nd wave. Remember also, wave 2 has a corrective wave (A-B-C) embedded within; so,we expect to see it fall-rise-fall.
Well, we exceeded 50% ($4.48) at 20210416:1235EST and ended at $152.61 (the 85% level). Thus, firmly establishing the Wave 1 and giving us the A-leg of our corrective pattern. We went on to rise ($155.74) and subsequently fall again, that's B-leg complete. Finally, at 20210416:1435EST we bottom-out at $151.82, closing out the A-B-C correction and completing the Wave 2.
Here's what that looks like:
(The dangling 3-4-5 is what we have yet to work with.)
Now, on with the fun stuff.
With Wave2 complete we move on to the largest wave of the impulse, Wave 3. What's the rule? Wave 3 is 161.8%, 200%, 261.8%, or 323.6% of Wave1. Time to breakout the magical rainbow Fib Extension:
We are looking for Wave3 to peek above Wave1 at one of these levels.
161.8% = $166.30, my range estimate ($165.49 - $167.10) 200.0% = $169.71 , my range estimate ($168.91 - $171.03) 261.8% = $175.24 , my range estimate ($173.94 - $176.55) 323.6% = $180.77 , my range estimate ($179.47 - $181.97)
So, this what the next move looks like (in broad strokes):
Note: Future dates are MEANINGLESS. Peak is never late; arrives on time, every time.
Some of you are probably asking, "How will we know when we've reached Wave3's peak?"
Well, Elliott Waves are fractals. So, I can do a deeper dive into the formation of Wave3 as it proceeds. But, from what I see now, AH pushed us up beyond Wave1 peak in 3h. It hit a solid resistance at Wave1 peak level ($160.20) but 30m later it broke through only to hit solid resistance at the 1.0-level in the last half-hour of trading.
Those final two green bars gobbled up the shares present and, hungry for more, would have run hard and fast, were it not for the close. Sadly, since it's the weekend, cooler heads will prevail on Monday. Since we hit those two resistance levels undeterred but for lack of time, I'd expect pre-Market to be ready to go but tempered. (Had this been during market hours or still had another trading day, I think we'd've def hit Wave3 peak in at least 3hr.)
OBLIGATORY DISCLAIMER: Any references to 'we' & 'us' are merely social in nature and do not indicate coordination. Moreover, this is not financial or trading advice. Take nothing what I or anyone else tells you as a reason to forgo your own due diligence. I am just an ape drawing pretty colored pictures on my display thing with e-crayons. Also, I'm new to this stuff (my first in-depth, published TA) and hope I have done this correctly, but I'm a rETarD and probably fracked it.
One final note, This is my first in-depth TA and I'm not all familiar with posting to TV. Please forgive the n00b formatting errors.