please note: This is a personal journal only, but NOT a trading suggestion.
Current price: 1907
===================Technical Analysis=================
Gold has started its bullish trend since 1850 key resistence broken. After the trendline was re-tested again at 1850.
Then the price has been pushed very high due to the Ukraine-Russia issue.
From the chart, I am thinking The cycle of rise is temporarily stopped with an extended wave-3 and a final rush to 1915 as wave-5.
We have seen a typical correction pattern between 1886 and 1900 for a while as wave-4.
The drop from the highest point to 1890 broke the ascending trendline, which looks like a signal that the correction might start.
Tonight Gold reaches back to 1907, which may be the re-test of the trendline, and then another drop will be expected to 1880 area.
===================Fundmental thoughts=================
Defintely Ukraine Russia is the key reason that turns Gold market into a strong bull. However, I am quite doubt about the duration of this move. We should also be aware that last NFP news in Feb and other news and data indicated the U.S is going to raise interest in March FOMC or sometime. 99.99% sure about that. I would not place long order at any price above 1900 even I don't know when the bullish will be over.
It's very risky at this time to long.
So here are a few scenarios:
=================Possible Situation==========
No.1 Gold breaks the previous high 1915, and the next target will be 1930 area easily.
No.2 Gold starts the correction before next huge movement. I'm exepecting correction A-B-C to be completed in next few days.
=================My Trading Plan===============
Buy limit: 1880,
Sell limit: 1907 area, SL 1916
Buy stop: N/A
sell stop: 1888, tp 1880
Current price: 1907
===================Technical Analysis=================
Gold has started its bullish trend since 1850 key resistence broken. After the trendline was re-tested again at 1850.
Then the price has been pushed very high due to the Ukraine-Russia issue.
From the chart, I am thinking The cycle of rise is temporarily stopped with an extended wave-3 and a final rush to 1915 as wave-5.
We have seen a typical correction pattern between 1886 and 1900 for a while as wave-4.
The drop from the highest point to 1890 broke the ascending trendline, which looks like a signal that the correction might start.
Tonight Gold reaches back to 1907, which may be the re-test of the trendline, and then another drop will be expected to 1880 area.
===================Fundmental thoughts=================
Defintely Ukraine Russia is the key reason that turns Gold market into a strong bull. However, I am quite doubt about the duration of this move. We should also be aware that last NFP news in Feb and other news and data indicated the U.S is going to raise interest in March FOMC or sometime. 99.99% sure about that. I would not place long order at any price above 1900 even I don't know when the bullish will be over.
It's very risky at this time to long.
So here are a few scenarios:
=================Possible Situation==========
No.1 Gold breaks the previous high 1915, and the next target will be 1930 area easily.
No.2 Gold starts the correction before next huge movement. I'm exepecting correction A-B-C to be completed in next few days.
=================My Trading Plan===============
Buy limit: 1880,
Sell limit: 1907 area, SL 1916
Buy stop: N/A
sell stop: 1888, tp 1880
Trade closed: stop reached:
sell hit SL. I'm waiting for another opportunity
Gold price is approaching 1914, a key point that will trigger a jump or dump