Gold's general commentary: Gold is purely soaring on Fundamental pressure (Inflation on ATH), as my estimations are pointing that Gold will not be used as an sole hedge asset against Inflation, and current Fundamentally driven rise will shortly come to an end / Top. I do not certainly agree that Gold is headed to ATH's, as Gold is still within Descending Channel on bigger charts. What aided Gold on breaking the #1,832.80 Quadruple Top formation was the positive issue of the New memorandum for new U.S. elections (and already passed Bill where Fed will Buy Bond Yields), which is evident on Hourly 1 chart, which was Trading on pure Bearish Divergence. I remain Bearish on both Short and Medium-term (even though Gold printed decent Intra-day rise), using such opportunities to Sell every rise which Gold makes. Important note: when you fully confirm the underlying trend on Gold, if it is a Bullish - always Buy the dips and take every chance as Long opportunity, if the trend is Bearish, use every opportunity to Sell every High /Spike which Gold makes.
Fundamental analysis: Price-action fluctuation and aggressive Volatility came as no surprise after yesterday’s U.S. session opening which caused Bond Yields to Trade sideways and add uncertainty on Gold which resulted as almost #40- #50 point Hourly 1 chart’s Price-action uptrend. Hourly 4 chart turned Bearish but Daily chart is still Neutral (current Buying pressure made shift from Bearish to Neutral), which may be hinting towards #1,822.80 again (reason of current pullback are Yields on Daily chart’s recovery). I don’t think that Gold is ready for Bullish full scale sustainability towards Upper levels yet, as surely I cannot rule out wider decline soon. Price-action is Trading around the Resistance on Hourly 1 chart, indication of indecision ahead. Also, today’s Bearish Hourly 4 candlestick pattern is an indication of increased tension and market expectations (Gold used as an hedge against Inflation once again). At the moment, Investors should place their capital on equity markets (away from Gold), which are on hard Resistance levels. Gold Prices are still on late August / early September consolidation levels and historical regression analysis shows that when Trading for long on those levels, aggressive decline follows on the aftermath. Besides this, nothing else supports the upwards argument since all Hourly charts are showing Bearish values but still Fundamental pressure is evident. As discussed, prepare for huge Volatility / rally on Gold with Bullish / Bearish spikes all along. I will manage the risk carefully and wait another opportunity to add additional set of Selling orders. Remember, what was an Support, becomes a Resistance when broken and same rule applies for Resistances (becoming Supports). I am fully Bearish on Gold’s Medium-term.
Technical analysis: Weekly chart (#1W) regressions show that Gold should continue Trading sideways for a few more sessions (aggressive Support and Resistance breaks). All my previous Resistance and Support levels remained the same / valid. Regarding Fundamentals again, outcome indeed was not the ordinary since reports came out Bullish for DX, so Gold should have dipped at least #30 points more (as statistic shows), regardless Gold ignored #7 out of #7 High impact macro-economic announcements (throughout past #30 sessions) and was Trading against the news, indicating elemental Volatile trend. It is possible though due to the less news, to see a Low Volumed flat Price-action throughout today’s session, not worth risking my capital. But overall, current configurations seems like pricing the new Medium-term Resistance zone. However, if #1,870.80 breaks, Gold may Target the #1,892.80 extension, while break of #1,848.80 may attract Sellers and drag the Price-action towards #1,822.80 Support (was the Resistance). This is one of the biggest-proportion Buying impulses since #2012 and by historic resemblance, every Gold’s Intra-day gains (#40$ or more) should be immediately Sold. Consequent to recent Bear momentum, Weekly Price-action is Trading within #1,860’s, potentially eyeing a run to another layer of Resistance line, the top edge of a Higher High zone Volatility belt continuing to push Gold on Higher levels. While this move was likely enough to remove a bigger portion of the Sellers from the market, Gold will unlikely rise anymore. Investors which were seeking for possible Selling opportunities, should wait for Fundamental pressure to settle. Current rise is nothing more than manually spiked up Price-action due Inflation on ATH, as one can never know when the Buying impulse will show signs of exhaustion. I will keep an eye on Bond Yields as my new/old point of interest, once again recovery ignored by Gold. However, if Bond Yields sharply correct, I’ll make my move. For now, I am comfortably on sidelines and without any positions. Gold may be Technically within April #5 - May #10, #2021 cycle, where Gold abnormally soared without a firm reason (besides Inflation), RSI was above #78.10 point, and what followed was Medium-term correction. I expect similar sequence ahead.
(Gold may be Technically within April #5 - May #10, #2021 cycle, where Gold abnormally soared without a firm reason...) Let me address this part if you don't mind! The completion of Gold's growth process from 12/2015 occurred at the 1703 top and corrected to 1451 as base for the new cycle. From 1451, price reached 2075 level, a price change of 624 points in 144 days. 0.618 of 624 pts = 385.63 units. The correction from 2075 to the 1677 double bottom took 235 days. 144 + 235 = 379 days. This also means 385.63 X 624 is a perfect 1.618 golden rectangle with its 1X1 square as 385.63 X 385.63. From 16/03/2020, 385 days ending the square is exactly on 5th April, 386 days on 6th April. Also the base 1451 + 385.63 = 1836.63 price level. So technically, the time axis for the end of the square was on 5th April, the price top of the square is 1836.63 where we had the multiple tops. Breaking that top means currently price has moved into the 238 X 386 golden section. 144 - 238 - 386 - 624 are successive fib series in progression. So there was a perfect reason for the move, would be ok if you can consider the geometry aspect of the trends
goldenBear88
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@Platinum14, Spectacular commentary!
goldweed
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Utterly false. Eight years experience specializing in the gold market? Inflation is here and by all reports it is not going away, and no amount of downplaying by you will make it go away. Gold will break your $1,870 resistance and blow past your $1,890 price within a week. This is a great time to buy gold and should remain so in the next couple weeks, at least.
Platinum-Markets
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@goldweed, I think you could put across your opinion even if you disagree instead of blatantly disputing, otherwise you are just irrelevant on the table
goldenBear88
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@Platinum14, Spot on, it is not wise to engage a financial conversation with people who do not understand basic economic concepts.
The completion of Gold's growth process from 12/2015 occurred at the 1703 top and corrected to 1451 as base for the new cycle.
From 1451, price reached 2075 level, a price change of 624 points in 144 days.
0.618 of 624 pts = 385.63 units.
The correction from 2075 to the 1677 double bottom took 235 days.
144 + 235 = 379 days.
This also means 385.63 X 624 is a perfect 1.618 golden rectangle with its 1X1 square as 385.63 X 385.63. From 16/03/2020, 385 days ending the square is exactly on 5th April, 386 days on 6th April. Also the base 1451 + 385.63 = 1836.63 price level.
So technically, the time axis for the end of the square was on 5th April, the price top of the square is 1836.63 where we had the multiple tops. Breaking that top means currently price has moved into the 238 X 386 golden section.
144 - 238 - 386 - 624 are successive fib series in progression.
So there was a perfect reason for the move, would be ok if you can consider the geometry aspect of the trends