Admiral_Markets

Fundamentals and Seasonals are on the same side as the Gold bull

TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
After the announcement of a "deal" between the US and China, and markets being "hit" by a risk-on-tendency at the end of last week, Gold was a stable and solid performer – a deeper look shows why this is not such a big surprise.

The main reason is the Fed: the Fed, as expected, didn't deliver a rate cut last week and presented a 'balanced' statement, and while the Fed dot plot signals no interest-rate changes in 2020, the Fed Watch Tool remained at an expectation of around 50% of at least one 25 basis point cut in 2020.

This dovish expectation of market participants is not surprising at all when looking at the Fed announcing that she will flood markets with $500 Billion in liquidity to avoid a year-end repo crisis (and will thus extend the Fed balance sheet to new record highs by mid-January) last Thursday.

As the Fed's balance sheet is currently expanding at a faster rate than during QE1, QE2 or QE3, there is the opening of a seasonal bullish window in Gold between December 18 and January 10, wherein Gold has seen an average gain of 47 USD for 12 of the past 15 years. With that in mind, our picture in Gold is currently clearly bullish , even though the technical picture switches to Long again with Gold breaking back above 1,520 USD which would level the path up to the current yearly highs around 1,557 USD.

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