GOLD Requires attention! For short attention spam readers :-p
Ciao Traders !
If you follow my posts you would know that I am short in gold..
Nevertheless we stopped in a place that demands attention !
We stopped exactly at the first algo target based on the top and the retracement Gold did in the last days: if you see the black WXY, the black Y did not reach the 1 to 1 extension based on wave W (see the fib extension tool in the chart), but, it reached the target of -0,236, is that why we stopped?
On the other side, as per the ABC, if correctly identified, the C leg is extend some where between the 1,236 and the 1,382 time the A wave
If you go with what is called "classic Technical Analysis", we still have way to go reach the head and shoulder target.
Interesting enough, the head and shoulder (HAS) target is exactly at the 1,618 extension of what I called (maybe wrongly, we will see later) wave W
Now, unfortunately this is one the situation where I have not only 2 possible cases, but rather 4..
CASE 1 - RED LINE - the temporary down move ended here, at around 1464, we made a WXY and Gold is going up towards 1600
CASE 2 - BLUE LINE - the trend will continue to 1415 and gold will form a WXY with an extension in wave Y (the ABC indicated might evolve in a WXY of a smaller degree) and, if not forming a complex correction, should proceed up towards 1600
CASE 3 - GREEN LINE - gold will fall to 1415 as case 2, bounce and continue lower (possibly around 1385). In this case the full down move from they high will be a 12345 wave, which will be probably corrected by a simple 3 wave (being overall a wave 1 of a new trend) or by a more complex wave (especially in case the whole move down will form a big ABC wave , and going directly to 1385 we forming only the A wave at that degree)
CASE 4 - BROWN LINE - complex correction than up (in this case I will need to update you later based on the wave pattern), which means, that we might go up from here, re-test the purple multi month trend line than more down before (as per my Bias) going back up towards 1600
So????? I gave too many options.. how will I act practically ?
First of all, my Bias is that Gold, as well as silver, should go up before falling in a multi year bear market. This should fit with my other Bias: Stocks still have some way up to go.
I would imagine that Gold consolidate and goes up a little tonight 30 sept. 2019 and tomorrow, when the stock market opens, Golds will push down while S&P up.. I might be wrong on the timing, but the overall view is the same
The 4 CASES actually requires only two strategies (nice, isn't it?)
STRATEGY 1- WE BREAK PREVIOUS LOW : I will re open my shorts if we break the today low of 1464 circa, and only if, previously we have a pull back to at least 1477. I will keep my stop loss very tight and take some profit at 1445 (to ensure that if it pull back up quickly, I break even, since I took some profit already).
STRATEGY 2 - We break the dashed black trend line, I open long positions with stop loss at today's low, targeting at least 1510. based on the waves I will evaluate how much of the position to close at that level. Otherwise carry it as up as I can, possibly to 1600
Hope was useful...
Happy trading to all !
Disclaimer:
This is not financial or investment advice
I am not a professional in the financial or investment fields
This analysis is just for entertainment purposes
Do not follow what I do or do it at your own risk
If you follow my posts you would know that I am short in gold..
Nevertheless we stopped in a place that demands attention !
We stopped exactly at the first algo target based on the top and the retracement Gold did in the last days: if you see the black WXY, the black Y did not reach the 1 to 1 extension based on wave W (see the fib extension tool in the chart), but, it reached the target of -0,236, is that why we stopped?
On the other side, as per the ABC, if correctly identified, the C leg is extend some where between the 1,236 and the 1,382 time the A wave
If you go with what is called "classic Technical Analysis", we still have way to go reach the head and shoulder target.
Interesting enough, the head and shoulder (HAS) target is exactly at the 1,618 extension of what I called (maybe wrongly, we will see later) wave W
Now, unfortunately this is one the situation where I have not only 2 possible cases, but rather 4..
CASE 1 - RED LINE - the temporary down move ended here, at around 1464, we made a WXY and Gold is going up towards 1600
CASE 2 - BLUE LINE - the trend will continue to 1415 and gold will form a WXY with an extension in wave Y (the ABC indicated might evolve in a WXY of a smaller degree) and, if not forming a complex correction, should proceed up towards 1600
CASE 3 - GREEN LINE - gold will fall to 1415 as case 2, bounce and continue lower (possibly around 1385). In this case the full down move from they high will be a 12345 wave, which will be probably corrected by a simple 3 wave (being overall a wave 1 of a new trend) or by a more complex wave (especially in case the whole move down will form a big ABC wave , and going directly to 1385 we forming only the A wave at that degree)
CASE 4 - BROWN LINE - complex correction than up (in this case I will need to update you later based on the wave pattern), which means, that we might go up from here, re-test the purple multi month trend line than more down before (as per my Bias) going back up towards 1600
So????? I gave too many options.. how will I act practically ?
First of all, my Bias is that Gold, as well as silver, should go up before falling in a multi year bear market. This should fit with my other Bias: Stocks still have some way up to go.
I would imagine that Gold consolidate and goes up a little tonight 30 sept. 2019 and tomorrow, when the stock market opens, Golds will push down while S&P up.. I might be wrong on the timing, but the overall view is the same
The 4 CASES actually requires only two strategies (nice, isn't it?)
STRATEGY 1- WE BREAK PREVIOUS LOW : I will re open my shorts if we break the today low of 1464 circa, and only if, previously we have a pull back to at least 1477. I will keep my stop loss very tight and take some profit at 1445 (to ensure that if it pull back up quickly, I break even, since I took some profit already).
STRATEGY 2 - We break the dashed black trend line, I open long positions with stop loss at today's low, targeting at least 1510. based on the waves I will evaluate how much of the position to close at that level. Otherwise carry it as up as I can, possibly to 1600
Hope was useful...
Happy trading to all !
Disclaimer:
This is not financial or investment advice
I am not a professional in the financial or investment fields
This analysis is just for entertainment purposes
Do not follow what I do or do it at your own risk
Trade active:
Hi
we broke the dashed trend line, strategy one was closed in break even, Strategy 2 is now active.
First take profit 1489
we broke the dashed trend line, strategy one was closed in break even, Strategy 2 is now active.
First take profit 1489
the strategy followed was Strategy 2, break of the trend line and the target at 1510 was hit !