Gold’s weekly outlook: March 12-16

TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold had a rangebound week ending with a cut of only $1. Price action was contained in a range which was the support and the resistance behaving on expected lines. Volatility was there but it was also confined within the range as key fundamental changes pushed the prices lower from the highs primary factor being geopolitical tensions getting tempered down as U.S and North Korea agreed to have talks. But the confusion still prevails as neither of the support or resistance got breached on closing basis.

On the chart –

Gold’s sideways movement which tested both the support and resistance still doesn’t offer any clarity to either bulls or bears even though they had their piece of pie in the week’s volatility . News flow is all the more causing confusion since bond yields are on the critical juncture which can aggressively push the metal in one direction. In the given situation we have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold held the support of $1317 and bounced back twice in the week, if this support holds then we can see uptrend resuming and once gold is able to move higher above $1331 it can rally till $1345. If this is crossed it can go higher till $1358. If this resistance area is conquered it can climb till $1374.

2. Again short trades are not the flavor but if $1331 is rejected it can fall towards $1317. If this support fails to hold it can fall back to $1308.

Bullish view – Bulls are in for a tough fight as they need to hold the supports which they were successful in the past week which allowed a move higher but couldn’t manage to cross the resistance at $1340s which led to a downfall yet again. For them to remain in the game they need to hold the support and to take charge they need to break the resistance at $1340s which will enable them to take the prices to fresh 52 week highs. Technically a bullish flag is in formation in daily time frame which could aid the bulls to keep the prices afloat above $1300.

Bearish view – Bears had a see-saw kind of week but ultimately they won even though it was through a cut of just $1. They had the upper hand in the week on account of erosion of prices lower from the support at $1317 but they failed to capitalize. In order to get the tide to turn red they need to break through $1317 decisively.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain sideways as no clear direction is visible since the price is cradled between the support and the resistance. Need a break on either side for a clear direction.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1337 for the targets of $1345 and $1358 with a stop loss placed below $1331. Longer term target $1374.
There are no short trades unless $1317 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1308.
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