S&P ATH, Gold mega day.
Here is in my opinion what investors are looking at, with some in the list being constant uncertainties (for now): Covid & unrest, and some being certainties once or twice a month (and it's all happening this week): FED speeches, GDP numbers, inflation, quarterly earnings that "all" are falling this week, simple objective (cough cough) numbers.
And then things like the OPEC+ declaration to increase production are sort of ponctual surprises.
I guess some big institutions heard enough and pu money in gold, as well as continued the S&P trend.
Gold started going up after the FED talky talky and is continuing up.
The uncertainty factors sometimes become certainties (well, technically certain uncertainties like in March 2020), they might be the reason why markets refuse to move until they get a catalyst.
Obviously if everything gets shutdown it should impact markets (they do not have to be rational though) and if angry citizens boycott businesses (and maybe even destroy them) it really should impact markets (not sure it will).
The certainties are first the numbers when they fall, as well as FED (and even ECB) ridiculous damage control "please all be bullish inflation is transitory and we won't tell you if we want to raise rates or not we're not sure if you'll stay bullish either way yes because we are so neutral this is not a pyramid scheme".
And second as I explained it is a certainty that until at least 2024 (january 2025) the economic numbers will every single time be below (or far below) consensus.
If we get an eco number ABOVE expectations I'm not sure what would happen? The universe would fall apart maybe. And we'd form an anomaly in sol because of the the power of investor euphoria.
Hopefully we get 10-20 days of fun, green fun of course, I sell a bit, and use the profit to add during the next pullback.
Be fearful when the price goes against you, be hopeful when you are running a winner.
It's not even bad to "snatch" your profit if you are smart about it.
Closing half at 5R and keeping half with a 4R stop is the same risk, 2R, as keeping it all with a 2R stop, but if it keeps pumping your gains will be smaller, and on the positive you don't get kicked out with a small 2R pullback you can keep a very wide one with the same risk.
Realistically tight trailing stops never work, you'll never get the magical monster winner all you'll do is destroy your winrate.
But getting monster winners on half (for example) the size is nothing to sneeze at.
Here I will not sell gold just hold and add little by little when I get the chance, until it gets to ATH which is now 2075, and then and only then I will probably do this: close half keep half with a very wide stop (maybe $200), because I think gold long term goes up but I don't think it goes there in a straight line.
For the S&P I am a permabull for probably years to come, and you can look at literally any time in the past it never went up in a straight line it's always impulse-pullback, impulse-pullback, impulse-pullback.
So why would I not play around that? Impulse => sell, then wait, then pullback => buy. Just 1/5 of my position and I use turbos, I can use this to pyramid in.
Of course I don't expect the price to endlessly continue the same way, but what I expect is acceleration before a major correction, unless a meteor hits earth or there is a coup in the US. The world economy would be shaken by a coup or revolution in France but to be honest I am not sure what impact it would have on the S&P 500, I just know EURUSD would get high on cocaine.
Here is in my opinion what investors are looking at, with some in the list being constant uncertainties (for now): Covid & unrest, and some being certainties once or twice a month (and it's all happening this week): FED speeches, GDP numbers, inflation, quarterly earnings that "all" are falling this week, simple objective (cough cough) numbers.
And then things like the OPEC+ declaration to increase production are sort of ponctual surprises.
I guess some big institutions heard enough and pu money in gold, as well as continued the S&P trend.
Gold started going up after the FED talky talky and is continuing up.
The uncertainty factors sometimes become certainties (well, technically certain uncertainties like in March 2020), they might be the reason why markets refuse to move until they get a catalyst.
Obviously if everything gets shutdown it should impact markets (they do not have to be rational though) and if angry citizens boycott businesses (and maybe even destroy them) it really should impact markets (not sure it will).
The certainties are first the numbers when they fall, as well as FED (and even ECB) ridiculous damage control "please all be bullish inflation is transitory and we won't tell you if we want to raise rates or not we're not sure if you'll stay bullish either way yes because we are so neutral this is not a pyramid scheme".
And second as I explained it is a certainty that until at least 2024 (january 2025) the economic numbers will every single time be below (or far below) consensus.
If we get an eco number ABOVE expectations I'm not sure what would happen? The universe would fall apart maybe. And we'd form an anomaly in sol because of the the power of investor euphoria.
Hopefully we get 10-20 days of fun, green fun of course, I sell a bit, and use the profit to add during the next pullback.
Be fearful when the price goes against you, be hopeful when you are running a winner.
It's not even bad to "snatch" your profit if you are smart about it.
Closing half at 5R and keeping half with a 4R stop is the same risk, 2R, as keeping it all with a 2R stop, but if it keeps pumping your gains will be smaller, and on the positive you don't get kicked out with a small 2R pullback you can keep a very wide one with the same risk.
Realistically tight trailing stops never work, you'll never get the magical monster winner all you'll do is destroy your winrate.
But getting monster winners on half (for example) the size is nothing to sneeze at.
Here I will not sell gold just hold and add little by little when I get the chance, until it gets to ATH which is now 2075, and then and only then I will probably do this: close half keep half with a very wide stop (maybe $200), because I think gold long term goes up but I don't think it goes there in a straight line.
For the S&P I am a permabull for probably years to come, and you can look at literally any time in the past it never went up in a straight line it's always impulse-pullback, impulse-pullback, impulse-pullback.
So why would I not play around that? Impulse => sell, then wait, then pullback => buy. Just 1/5 of my position and I use turbos, I can use this to pyramid in.
Of course I don't expect the price to endlessly continue the same way, but what I expect is acceleration before a major correction, unless a meteor hits earth or there is a coup in the US. The world economy would be shaken by a coup or revolution in France but to be honest I am not sure what impact it would have on the S&P 500, I just know EURUSD would get high on cocaine.