The last reading came in at 54.7 points for last October, from a near three-year low of 52.6 in September and above market consensus of 53.5, added to the rise in 10-year US-Treasury yields at the beginning of the month of November and drop in Gold back below 1,500 USD.
Interestingly enough, the precious metal stabilised above 1,440/450 USD, despite the rise in the USD/JPY back above 109.00, especially over the last few days.
That fueled, in fact, our outlook for the next months. If today's data set disappoints, we would expect a drop in 10-year US-Treasury yields, likely to result in a stint in Gold .
The reason: worse than expected data on the other hand could result in rising expectations of an increasingly dovish stance from the Fed at the December 11 meeting, adding fuel to our Gold outlook which is mainly driven by the fact that the Fed's is currently expanding at a faster rate than during QE1, QE2 or QE3.
And even if better than expected data could result in short-term stints in Gold , these could be aggressively bought back and leave Gold for a push higher, since most of a 'hawkish' Fed is already priced into the precious metal.
With that in mind, technically our picture switches to Long again with Gold breaking back above 1,520 USD which would level the path up to the current yearly highs around 1,557 USD, a first sign in the lower time-frames (H1) is already sent with Gold recapturing 1,480 USD.
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