this analyse refers to traders who are focused on mid- and longterm trades. In my opinion gold now is going to complete an Elliottwave correction pattern, which is also a base where gold will start to new highs. The sentiment is worse than at the end of 2015. After that in 2016, gold started a bullrun from 1.046 USD to 1.375 USD. The CoT dates show us, that the so called “dump money” is spending gold with full hands while the so called “smart money” is gathering it historically cheap. We should not ignore that!
Where are we standing?
In December 2015 we saw a corrective wave 4 ending at 1.046 USD (it lasts form September 2011 to December 2015). After that, gold started a bullrun to 1.375 USD (wave 1 of final wave 5), followed by a corrective wave 2, which ended at the end of 2016 (1.122 USD). Since the beginning of 2017 gold builts a second 1-2 basic impulsive wave structure, which took much longer than I thought. To the end of December 2017 to be precise. But that was just the first corrective wave a, followed by wave b at 1.366 USD. And now we are in the final corrective wave c of 2 (purple in brackets).
What I want to say is: it is time to prepare for a very long longtrade. I think that gold will turn in the blue box placed in the chart above. The goal of the final wave 5 could easily be between 2.000 USD and 3.000 USD. When it comes to a crash in the 20ies and/or a war, much higher. A crash trough all important indices in the 20ies is not that unlikely by the way.
We will find further possibilities to place orders, but we should already use this chance to get a foot in the door earlier than most of the investors out there.
Please leave a comment or a message, if you have any questions.
Take care tgo
Trade active
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Hello, what an epic sell-off yesterday at nearly every single market! So now the sentiment is worse than the last few years. A perfect try for a longtrade, I think. But be careful, if silver doesn't rise impulsive and fails at on of these price levels, we will see courses around 1.000$ and even less: 1.205$, 1.236$ and then minimum above1.260$. These are key-levels.
Long
Entry: 1.172$ 1. stop: 1.136$
I will post more updates in due time.
Take care, tgo
Trade active
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Hello, absolutely unsafe at the moment, so...
Entry: 1.172$ 1. stop: 1.136$ 2. stop: 1.172$
It's possible that we will see a wave 4 (up) and then a final sell of (wave 5 of c of c of 2). We will see...
Take care, tgo
Trade active
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Hello everybody,
it’s absolutely not sure if we are in a stable uptrend already, so I decided to leave my stop at 1,172$ to be safe. It is possible that we will see only a wave 4. Now it is very important to get through 1,205$ - the first wall to hit. But that does not mean anything, because the most important sore points are 1,236$, 1,282$ and finally 1,366$. The problem is, that wave 4 could easily reach 1,282$ technically.
So, we have to decide carefully where to set stops.
I have decided to adjust my wave count and my blue trading box to get the eventual wave 5 enough space to complete on the downside:
Hey tgo, I'm thinking things are going to likely follow the alternate a, c in your chart. Also, thinking your Fibonacci line spread should be from the Dec. 16 low to the Sept high, instead of what is shown above. Essentially, what you are trying to do is pick potential retracement targets for the bottom of the C-wave across the entire correction of the 1st wave up. Might give you a different perspective on potential c wave bottoms...
Cheers!
HK-Capital-Management
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@Cincinnatuus,
Hey Cincinnatuus, there are two possibilities now: either wave 2 ended at 1,122 in Dec. 16 and we will see a turn around now, or we will complete this wave a floor below. But now, I see a good chance for a reaction to the upside, because if the correction of wave 2 is not completed yet, we will see a wave 4 up and then finally a wave 5 down to complete the abc-correction pattern. And, my Fibnacci line spread is from Dec. 16 low to Sep. 17 high, by the way.
Cheers!
Cincinnatuus
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@tradingguideonline, I had been as optimistic as you are up until about a week and a half go, thinking along the same lines of where a potential bottom would be. Now, it would not surprise me to see the December 2016 low taken out, forming an a-b-c simple flat. Followed by a big beautiful 3rd wave going back to the old highs... I suspect we are going to find out pretty quickly here how low price action is going to go.
HK-Capital-Management
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@Cincinnatuus,
I am not optimistic at all. There are these two possibilities: turn around now, or downfall right to Dec. 2015 low. So or so I think that we will see a movement to the upside (maybe to 1,236$). The question is how strong will the reaction be and will it be impulsive or corrective. Then we have to decide what to do.
Besides, why do you think that gold will drop down?
Cincinnatuus
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@tradingguideonline, The fundamental reason would be dollar strength and CNY weakness, not to mention overall EM weakness. China is devaluing it's currency above 7.0 CNYUSD. There has also been talk that China has been buying gold when it drops down to their buy point, providing a base of support. The more their currency devalues, the more the price of gold can drop in USD...
Technically, I view the Gold market being in a relentless C-Wave sell-off, so any bounces will be small.
AdamPalmkvist
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Lol we weren't even close to reaching your prediction ahahah xDD
HK-Capital-Management
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@AdamPalmkvist,
I do not understand. We are in the middle of me predicted tradingbox, aren't we?
AdamPalmkvist
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@tradingguideonline, You clearly meant we would bounce ontop of that support ($1205)