please note: This is a personal journal only, but NOT a trading suggestion.
Current price: 1771.5
===================Analysis=================
If you followed my 1101 analysis:
Gold has reached the target 1760 yesterday. It rebounced to 1778 highest this morning. It's still a strong bounce back, but not as strong as last time (1770 - 1796).
Based on this pattern, I'm thinking Gold just make an extended wave-3 (1797-1760).
Due to the fact that wave-2 is strong and straight, there's very likely that wave-4 now will perform as a consolidation pattern in the range of 1760 -1785.
I still don't know if it's a triangle or rectangle, but this move will not exceed 1785, otherwise, this 5-wave assumption will not be valid.
Thus, as long as Gold price stays below 1785, I will do short only or half position as usual to buy around 1760 support area with tight SL.
If 1760 is broken, then 1735-1745 will be the next target area.
Because I find gold is rejected at 1777 in H4 chart, I will see 1777 could be the top edge of wave-4 (assume this is a flat consolidation).
So here are a few situations:
=================Possible Situation==========
No.1 Gold ranges between 1785-1760 in either flat pattern or triangle patern
No.2 Gold rise above 1785 and make this 5-wave assumption invalid.
NO.3 Gold breaks 1760 and quickly finish wave-5 at 1735 area.
P.S:
I'm NOT trying to predict the market, but just to find out the most cost-efficient plan to trade.
=================My Trading Plan===============
Buy limit: 1760 area , SL 1757, TP 1777 (smaller position as usual because it's anti-trend trade. )
Sell limit: 1777-1785 area, SL 1788, TP 1760 or 1745
Sell stop: 1757, TP 1745
Current price: 1771.5
===================Analysis=================
If you followed my 1101 analysis:
Gold has reached the target 1760 yesterday. It rebounced to 1778 highest this morning. It's still a strong bounce back, but not as strong as last time (1770 - 1796).
Based on this pattern, I'm thinking Gold just make an extended wave-3 (1797-1760).
Due to the fact that wave-2 is strong and straight, there's very likely that wave-4 now will perform as a consolidation pattern in the range of 1760 -1785.
I still don't know if it's a triangle or rectangle, but this move will not exceed 1785, otherwise, this 5-wave assumption will not be valid.
Thus, as long as Gold price stays below 1785, I will do short only or half position as usual to buy around 1760 support area with tight SL.
If 1760 is broken, then 1735-1745 will be the next target area.
Because I find gold is rejected at 1777 in H4 chart, I will see 1777 could be the top edge of wave-4 (assume this is a flat consolidation).
So here are a few situations:
=================Possible Situation==========
No.1 Gold ranges between 1785-1760 in either flat pattern or triangle patern
No.2 Gold rise above 1785 and make this 5-wave assumption invalid.
NO.3 Gold breaks 1760 and quickly finish wave-5 at 1735 area.
P.S:
I'm NOT trying to predict the market, but just to find out the most cost-efficient plan to trade.
=================My Trading Plan===============
Buy limit: 1760 area , SL 1757, TP 1777 (smaller position as usual because it's anti-trend trade. )
Sell limit: 1777-1785 area, SL 1788, TP 1760 or 1745
Sell stop: 1757, TP 1745
Trade closed: stop reached:
SL hit again
